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TLV:BVBBanca Transilvania SA Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-31 - not real-time

RON 37.62

Latest Price

4/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Banca Transilvania (TLV) is trading at RON 37.62, just below its 20‑day SMA of 38.21 but comfortably above the 50‑day SMA of 37.18, indicating a short‑term bullish bias while the MACD histogram is negative, suggesting caution. Fitch upgraded the issuer rating to BBB, and the bank reported adding nearly 140,000 new customers in Q1, pushing active accounts toward the 5 million mark, which supports its revenue growth of roughly 15% YoY. The stock’s PE ratio of 8.4 is well beneath the industry average of 16.6, and a dividend yield of 3.4% with a payout ratio under 50% points to sustainable income. Volatility over the past 30 days sits at 16.4% and beta is only 0.20**, reflecting low market sensitivity**. With support at 35.90 and resistance at 39.36, the price has room to move higher while remaining well‑capitalized at a market cap of RON 40.9 bn.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price near 20‑day SMA with bullish trend but bearish MACD signal
  • Support level at 35.90 providing downside cushion
  • Increasing volume indicating growing investor interest

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Fitch rating upgrade to BBB enhancing credit perception
  • Revenue growth of 15% and strong operating margins
  • Undervaluation relative to peers (PE 8.4 vs 16.6) and attractive dividend yield

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Low beta (0.20) indicating limited market volatility exposure
  • Sustainable dividend policy with payout below 50%
  • Market leadership in Romania and expanding customer base

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth15.20%
Profit Margin41.66%
P/E Ratio8.4
ROE23.17%
ROA2.27%
P/B Ratio2.2
Op. Cash FlowRON-21004752896
Industry P/E16.6

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI45.5
SupportRON 35.90
ResistanceRON 39.36
MA 20RON 38.21
MA 50RON 37.18
MA 200RON 32.12
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index94.07

Valuation

Target PriceRON 36.73
Upside/Downside-2.36%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.41%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.20
Volatility16.36%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.