TLS:ASXTelstra Group Limited Analysis
Data as of 2026-09-07 - not real-time
A$4.77
Latest Price
3/10Risk
Risk Level: Low
Executive Summary
Telstra Group Limited trades at AUD 4.77, with its short-term moving averages sitting below the longer-term ones — a bearish trend structure. It has lost 3.2% over the past 30 days. Momentum indicators put RSI at 48.2 (neutral) with MACD reading bullish. Watch AUD 4.56 as support and AUD 5.01 as the nearer resistance level.
On valuation the read is overvalued — earnings multiple of 23.9 versus a 15.5 sector average, above the peer group. Analyst price targets sit 5.1% above the current price. Revenue is contracting at 2.0% on a 9.8% profit margin. The 4.38% dividend yield looks stretched against payout coverage.
Risk comes out at 3 of a possible 10, a low reading. With 30-day volatility of 18.3%, a beta of -0.03 and a maximum drawdown of 17.5%, the drawdown profile is forgiving relative to most of the market. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 95 on the fear-greed composite.
This one splits by horizon — sell in the near term, hold further out, at 3/10 long-term conviction.
On valuation the read is overvalued — earnings multiple of 23.9 versus a 15.5 sector average, above the peer group. Analyst price targets sit 5.1% above the current price. Revenue is contracting at 2.0% on a 9.8% profit margin. The 4.38% dividend yield looks stretched against payout coverage.
Risk comes out at 3 of a possible 10, a low reading. With 30-day volatility of 18.3%, a beta of -0.03 and a maximum drawdown of 17.5%, the drawdown profile is forgiving relative to most of the market. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 95 on the fear-greed composite.
This one splits by horizon — sell in the near term, hold further out, at 3/10 long-term conviction.
Top Market Events
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Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked below long-term ones
- Trading below the 200-day average of 5.05
- MACD momentum is positive
Medium Term
1–3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked below long-term ones
- P/E of 23.9 versus sector average of 15.5
- Dividend yield of 4.38% looks stretched against payout coverage
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 3/10
Key Factors
- P/E of 23.9 versus sector average of 15.5
- Dividend yield of 4.38% looks stretched against payout coverage
- Analyst targets imply +5.1% versus the current price
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-2.00%
Profit Margin9.77%
P/E Ratio23.9
ROE15.37%
ROA5.90%
Debt/Equity126.28
P/B Ratio4.2
Op. Cash FlowA$7.6B
Free Cash FlowA$3.4B
Industry P/E15.5
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI48.2
SupportA$4.56
ResistanceA$5.01
MA 20A$4.74
MA 50A$4.89
MA 200A$5.05
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index95.48
Valuation
Fair ValueA$2.31
Target PriceA$5.01
Upside/Downside5.07%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield4.38%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.03
Volatility18.34%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.