TLKM:IDXPT Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk Class B Analysis

Telkom Indonesia (TLKM) is trading at IDR 3,030, comfortably above its 20‑day (IDR 2,988) and 50‑day (IDR 3,025) moving averages but still below the 200‑day level (IDR 3,273), indicating short‑term momentum within a longer‑term bearish backdrop. Technical indicators are mixed: the MACD is bullish with a positive histogram, RSI sits near the neutral 51 mark, and volume is rising, suggesting a potential bounce off the identified support at IDR 2,840. Fundamentally, the stock appears undervalued – the DCF fair value of roughly IDR 4,603 implies a 25% upside, and the forward P/E of 11.6 is well below the current 18.4 and the industry average of 17.0. However, the dividend yield of 7% is offset by an unsustainable payout ratio above 100%, and recent earnings reports show a 9.5% profit decline linked to governance reforms.
Analyst consensus remains a “Buy” with a mean target near IDR 3,785, reflecting confidence in the company’s strong cash flow, solid margins (gross 59%, operating 25%) and ongoing infrastructure investments. Yet, heightened volatility (≈32% 30‑day) and a recent downgrade to “Hold” by some commentators underscore medium‑term uncertainties, especially around profit stability and debt levels (DE/Equity ≈44%). Overall, TLKM offers attractive valuation and dividend appeal, but investors should monitor earnings quality and regulatory developments before committing.