TELIA:OMXSTOTelia Company AB Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-14 - not real-time
€4.35
Latest Price
4/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Telia’s price sits at €4.35, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA of 4.28 and the 50‑day SMA of 4.02, indicating a short‑term bullish bias, while the 200‑day SMA at 3.45 confirms a longer‑term uptrend. RSI at 62 suggests momentum remains healthy but not yet overbought, and the increasing volume supports the price advance toward the resistance near €4.44. However, the MACD histogram has turned negative and the signal line is labeled bearish, warning of a possible near‑term pullback as the market tests the support around €4.15. Fundamentally, the stock trades at a high PE of 36 versus an industry average of 18, and the DCF fair value of €25.16 is far below the current price, flagging significant overvaluation. The dividend yield of 4.5% looks attractive, but a payout ratio exceeding 150% raises concerns about sustainability. With a low beta of 0.17, modest 30‑day volatility of 20%, and solid free cash flow, the equity offers defensive characteristics but faces valuation and dividend‑risk headwinds.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Price approaching resistance at €4.44
- Bearish MACD signal
- High PE relative to peers
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Strong free cash flow generation
- Low beta and defensive volatility profile
- Attractive price‑to‑book ratio below 0.4
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Stable cash‑flow base supporting future dividend adjustments
- Continued growth in high‑margin services and IoT offerings
- Undervalued book value relative to market price
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-10.20%
Profit Margin4.35%
P/E Ratio36.3
ROE10.22%
ROA3.28%
Debt/Equity159.54
P/B Ratio0.3
Free Cash Flow€7.3B
Industry P/E17.8
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI62.2
Support€4.15
Resistance€4.44
MA 20€4.28
MA 50€4.02
MA 200€3.45
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88
Valuation
Fair Value€25.16
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield4.54%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.17
Volatility20.05%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.