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TELIA:OMXSTOTelia Company AB Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-14 - not real-time

€4.35

Latest Price

4/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Telia’s price sits at €4.35, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA of 4.28 and the 50‑day SMA of 4.02, indicating a short‑term bullish bias, while the 200‑day SMA at 3.45 confirms a longer‑term uptrend. RSI at 62 suggests momentum remains healthy but not yet overbought, and the increasing volume supports the price advance toward the resistance near €4.44. However, the MACD histogram has turned negative and the signal line is labeled bearish, warning of a possible near‑term pullback as the market tests the support around €4.15. Fundamentally, the stock trades at a high PE of 36 versus an industry average of 18, and the DCF fair value of €25.16 is far below the current price, flagging significant overvaluation. The dividend yield of 4.5% looks attractive, but a payout ratio exceeding 150% raises concerns about sustainability. With a low beta of 0.17, modest 30‑day volatility of 20%, and solid free cash flow, the equity offers defensive characteristics but faces valuation and dividend‑risk headwinds.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Price approaching resistance at €4.44
  • Bearish MACD signal
  • High PE relative to peers

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Strong free cash flow generation
  • Low beta and defensive volatility profile
  • Attractive price‑to‑book ratio below 0.4

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Stable cash‑flow base supporting future dividend adjustments
  • Continued growth in high‑margin services and IoT offerings
  • Undervalued book value relative to market price

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-10.20%
Profit Margin4.35%
P/E Ratio36.3
ROE10.22%
ROA3.28%
Debt/Equity159.54
P/B Ratio0.3
Free Cash Flow€7.3B
Industry P/E17.8

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI62.2
Support€4.15
Resistance€4.44
MA 20€4.28
MA 50€4.02
MA 200€3.45
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88

Valuation

Fair Value€25.16
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield4.54%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.17
Volatility20.05%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.