TD:TSXToronto-Dominion Bank Analysis
Data as of 2026-09-05 - not real-time
CA$168.24
Latest Price
3/10Risk
Risk Level: Low
Executive Summary
At CAD 168.24, The Toronto-Dominion Bank shows no decisive moving-average alignment, leaving the trend neutral. With RSI at 51.5 the momentum picture is neutral, alongside a bullish MACD signal. Watch CAD 159.23 as support and CAD 173.71 as the nearer resistance level.
On valuation the read is fair — earnings multiple of 18.0 versus a 16.5 sector average, in line with the peer group. Sell-side targets cluster 6.5% above the current quote. Revenue is growing at 11.5% on a 26.6% profit margin. The 2.64% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
Risk scores 3 out of 10, which is low for this asset class. With 30-day volatility of 20.5%, a beta of 0.66 and a maximum drawdown of 8.0%, the drawdown profile is forgiving relative to most of the market. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 95 on the fear-greed composite.
The horizons line up on buy — conviction 5 out of 10.
On valuation the read is fair — earnings multiple of 18.0 versus a 16.5 sector average, in line with the peer group. Sell-side targets cluster 6.5% above the current quote. Revenue is growing at 11.5% on a 26.6% profit margin. The 2.64% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
Risk scores 3 out of 10, which is low for this asset class. With 30-day volatility of 20.5%, a beta of 0.66 and a maximum drawdown of 8.0%, the drawdown profile is forgiving relative to most of the market. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 95 on the fear-greed composite.
The horizons line up on buy — conviction 5 out of 10.
Top Market Events
TD Merchant Solutions, part of Toronto-Dominion Bank TSX:TD , is rolling out the Clover all-in-one commerce platform in...Toronto-Dominion Bank TSX:TD and Bank of Montreal TSX:BMO are my favourite bank stocks, but only one is the better...Royal Bank and TD continue to deliver strong earnings growth with healthy capital positions and growing shareholder...
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Trading above the 200-day average of 144.95
- MACD momentum is positive
- RSI at 51.5 is in neutral territory
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- P/E of 18.0 versus sector average of 16.5
- Trading above the 200-day average of 144.95
- Analyst targets imply +6.5% versus the current price
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- P/E of 18.0 versus sector average of 16.5
- Analyst targets imply +6.5% versus the current price
- Profit margin of 26.6% is healthy
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth11.50%
Profit Margin26.62%
P/E Ratio18.0
ROE12.83%
ROA0.78%
P/B Ratio2.3
Op. Cash FlowCA$-6632999936
Industry P/E16.5
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI51.5
SupportCA$159.23
ResistanceCA$173.71
MA 20CA$167.56
MA 50CA$169.12
MA 200CA$144.95
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index95.48
Valuation
Target PriceCA$179.21
Upside/Downside6.52%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.64%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.66
Volatility20.49%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.