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TCBX:NYSEThird Coast Bancshares, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-04 - not real-time

$37.27

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Third Coast Bancshares is trading at $37.27, notably below its 20‑day SMA of 39.74 and its book value per share of $39.09, signaling a pricing discount. The stock’s P/E of 9.58 is well under the industry average of 17.46, and its P/B of 0.95 reinforces an undervalued stance. Fundamentals are strong: revenue jumped 25.6% YoY, ROE sits around 12%, and the balance sheet is solid with cash of $433.9 M dwarfing debt of $161 M. Technicals show mixed signals – RSI at 37.9 suggests slight oversold conditions, while MACD remains bearish, yet the broader trend is flagged “bullish” and volume is increasing. Recent material news highlights the successful integration of Keystone Bancshares, creating a $6 B Texas franchise and setting a quarterly loan growth target of $75‑$125 M, which should drive earnings momentum. The market sentiment is exuberant, reflected by a Fear & Greed Index of 88.25 (Extreme Greed), supporting the upside potential toward the resistance near $42.83.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price trading below short‑term moving averages
  • Increasing volume indicating buying interest
  • Support level around $36.45 providing downside cushion

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued valuation metrics (P/E, P/B) versus peers
  • Strong revenue growth and solid ROE
  • Loan growth target and synergies from Keystone merger

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained cash‑heavy balance sheet with low leverage
  • Continued regional market share expansion in Texas
  • Consistent earnings upside potential as integration matures

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth25.60%
Profit Margin32.44%
P/E Ratio9.6
ROE12.22%
ROA1.20%
P/B Ratio1.0
Industry P/E17.5

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI37.9
Support$36.45
Resistance$42.83
MA 20$39.74
MA 50$38.96
MA 200$38.88
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index88.25

Valuation

Target Price$42.75
Upside/Downside14.72%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta0.99
Volatility26.65%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.