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SUI:CRYPTOCAPMarket Cap SUI, $ Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-11 - not real-time

$136.65

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Sun Communities, Inc. (SUI) is trading well above its DCF fair value of $26.37, with the market price at $136.65 and a forward P/E of 47.8 versus an industry average of 33.0, indicating significant overvaluation. The stock shows strong bullish momentum—price sits above the 20‑day (132.98), 50‑day (128.42) and 200‑day (126.30) SMAs, RSI is at 65, and MACD is bullish—while volume is increasing and it remains near its 52‑week high of $137.85. Recent material news highlights a full‑year net income of $10.84 per share and a board‑approved dividend increase to $1.12 per quarter, supporting short‑term upside. However, the payout ratio is over 450%, raising concerns about dividend sustainability, and the company carries $4.31 B of debt with a debt‑to‑equity of ~61%, suggesting leverage risk.
Given the “Extreme Greed” market sentiment (F&G index 76.9) and modest beta (~0.4), the stock’s upside potential is limited to roughly 5% above current levels, while the downside risk remains around 14% from recent drawdowns.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish technical setup (price above key SMAs, RSI 65, bullish MACD)
  • Recent earnings beat and dividend increase
  • Increasing volume supporting price momentum

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Significant overvaluation relative to DCF and industry peers
  • High leverage and elevated payout ratio
  • Strong cash flow but uncertain dividend sustainability

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 4/10

Key Factors

  • Stable REIT cash flow and diversified geographic footprint
  • Potential valuation correction due to high forward P/E
  • Long‑term dividend risk from unsustainable payout ratio

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth3.40%
Profit Margin59.22%
P/E Ratio47.8
ROE0.01%
ROA2.15%
Debt/Equity60.91
P/B Ratio2.4
Op. Cash Flow$864.2M
Free Cash Flow$442.1M
Industry P/E33.0

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI65.0
Support$125.10
Resistance$137.85
MA 20$132.98
MA 50$128.42
MA 200$126.30
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index76.91

Valuation

Fair Value$26.37
Target Price$143.47
Upside/Downside4.99%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield3.04%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.40
Volatility20.57%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.