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SUEL:BSESUZLON FUTURES Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-17 - not real-time

R$119.35

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Current pricing of SUEL sits at 119.35, just shy of the 20‑day SMA (119.52) and below the 50‑day SMA (120.62), while remaining above the 200‑day SMA (118.71). The RSI is neutral at 47.8 and the MACD histogram is negative, signaling short‑term bearish momentum, yet volume remains stable and 30‑day volatility is moderate at roughly 9.4%. The beta of –0.03 indicates virtually no correlation with broader market moves, and the Fear/Greed index of 92.5 reflects an environment of extreme greed, suggesting market participants are optimistic despite the technical softness.
Given the price is only about 1.5 points below the identified resistance of 120.83 and the max drawdown is limited to ~5%, the downside risk appears contained. This backdrop supports a neutral‑to‑slightly‑bullish stance—holding in the short term while positioning for upside as sentiment and price gravitate toward the resistance level.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price hovering just below the 20‑day SMA
  • RSI near neutral at 48
  • Bearish MACD histogram

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Stable volume trend
  • Moderate 30‑day volatility (~9%)
  • Extreme greed sentiment may sustain demand

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price within 4% of 52‑week high
  • Low beta indicating limited market‑wide risk
  • Potential upside toward resistance at 120.83

Key Metrics & Analysis

Commodity Metrics

Spot Price119.354
Futures CurveFlat
Inventory LevelMedium
Supply/Demand RegimeBalanced
USD SensitivityLow
Rates SensitivityLow
Geopolitical SensitivityLow

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI47.8
SupportR$0.00
ResistanceR$120.83
MA 20R$119.52
MA 50R$120.62
MA 200R$118.71
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index92.5

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.03
Volatility9.41%
Sector RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.