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SMIN:LSESmiths Group Plc Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-14 - not real-time

£2,366.00

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Smiths Group plc is trading at the 20‑day SMA of 2,623.9 GBp, just above a strong support level of 2,366 GBp, indicating a potential floor under current price action. The 14‑day RSI of 28.6 places the stock in oversold territory, while the MACD histogram remains firmly negative, signaling lingering bearish momentum despite a broader bullish trend direction. Valuation metrics show a trailing P/E of 29.2, essentially in line with the industry average of 29.1, yet the discounted cash‑flow fair value of £1,242 suggests the market price is significantly above intrinsic estimates. The dividend yield of 1.86 % and a payout ratio of 55 % are supported by solid operating cash flow, though free cash flow is slightly negative. Liquidity remains healthy with a market cap of £7.36 bn and increasing volume trends, while the low beta of 0.48 points to limited price volatility relative to the market. Overall, the stock presents a mixed picture: attractive income and defensive exposure offset by apparent overvaluation and short‑term technical weakness.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price hovering at a strong support level
  • RSI indicating oversold conditions
  • Bearish MACD histogram despite bullish trend direction

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Valuation roughly aligned with peers but above DCF fair value
  • Stable dividend yield and payout ratio
  • Consistent operating cash flow supporting earnings

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Defensive industrial exposure across multiple geographies
  • Low beta and modest volatility indicating steady performance
  • Sustainable dividend offering income potential

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Profit Margin9.95%
P/E Ratio29.2
ROE12.80%
ROA6.67%
Debt/Equity32.38
P/B Ratio381.2
Op. Cash Flow£456.0M
Free Cash Flow£-33875000
Industry P/E29.1

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI28.6
Support£2,366.00
Resistance£2,746.27
MA 20£2,623.90
MA 50£2,577.64
MA 200£2,412.23
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88

Valuation

Fair Value£1,242.47
Target Price£2,828.73
Upside/Downside19.56%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield1.86%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.48
Volatility26.27%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.