SMGR:IDXPT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk Analysis

SMGR is trading at IDR 2,520, well below the DCF‑derived fair value of about IDR 4,571, implying roughly a 16 % upside. The stock’s price‑to‑book ratio of 0.39 and price‑to‑sales of 0.48 further underscore its relative cheapness against peers. While the trailing P/E of 149 appears stretched, the forward P/E collapses to 7.8 thanks to a projected EPS jump from 16.88 to 321.63, indicating strong earnings upside. A dividend yield of 3.82 % coupled with an exceptionally low payout ratio of 5.7 % suggests the dividend is highly sustainable. Cash generation is robust, with operating cash flow of IDR 3.66 trillion and free cash flow of IDR 2.77 trillion, comfortably covering debt service despite a high debt‑to‑equity of 23. The company’s ROE of 0.4 % and net profit margin of 0.3 % are modest, reflecting the capital‑intensive nature of cement production.
Technically, the 20‑day SMA (2,755) sits above the current price, and the MACD histogram is negative, signalling short‑term bearish momentum. RSI at 43 points to a neutral stance, while volume has been trending down, indicating waning buying pressure. The beta of 0.39 and a 30‑day volatility of 75 % point to low market correlation but high price swings, contributing to a medium overall risk profile. Support at IDR 2,400 offers a modest cushion, whereas resistance near IDR 3,220 remains distant. Given the valuation upside, strong cash flow and dividend safety, the medium‑ to long‑term outlook is attractive, warranting a buy recommendation. In the short run, the bearish MACD and declining volume suggest a hold stance until price stabilises.