2128:HKEXChina Lesso Group Holdings Limited Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-07 - not real-time
HK$6.02
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
China Lesso trades around HK$6.02, notably above its DCF‑derived fair value of roughly HK$2.28, implying a material discount to intrinsic worth. The stock enjoys a low trailing P/E of 9.7 versus an industry average of 29.4 and a solid dividend yield of 3.32%, but revenue has slipped 8% year‑on‑year and the company carries a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 76.8, raising concerns about balance‑sheet resilience. Technicals show a bullish trend direction but a bearish MACD histogram and price sitting just below the 20‑day SMA, with support near HK$5.81 and resistance at HK$7.14, suggesting limited upside in the near term.
Given the low computed beta (0.09) and stable volume, the stock is not highly correlated with market swings, yet 30‑day volatility exceeds 50%, reflecting price sensitivity. The dividend payout ratio of 33% appears sustainable on the back of positive operating and free cash flow, offering income appeal despite the valuation premium.
Given the low computed beta (0.09) and stable volume, the stock is not highly correlated with market swings, yet 30‑day volatility exceeds 50%, reflecting price sensitivity. The dividend payout ratio of 33% appears sustainable on the back of positive operating and free cash flow, offering income appeal despite the valuation premium.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price hovering just above the identified support level of HK$5.81
- Bearish MACD histogram indicating short‑term momentum weakness
- Stable trading volume supporting liquidity
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Market price exceeds DCF fair value, suggesting limited upside
- Strong dividend yield of 3.32% offsets valuation concerns
- Negative revenue growth and high debt‑to‑equity ratio
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Sustainable dividend payout supported by positive cash flow
- Low beta indicating limited systematic risk over longer horizons
- Robust operating cash flow despite cyclical industry exposure
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-8.00%
Profit Margin6.50%
P/E Ratio9.7
ROE6.40%
ROA3.97%
Debt/Equity76.83
P/B Ratio0.7
Op. Cash FlowHK$2.8B
Free Cash FlowHK$1.6B
Industry P/E29.4
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI47.2
SupportHK$5.81
ResistanceHK$7.14
MA 20HK$6.41
MA 50HK$5.59
MA 200HK$4.81
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index68.77
Valuation
Fair ValueHK$2.28
Target PriceHK$5.53
Upside/Downside-8.11%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield3.32%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.09
Volatility54.19%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.