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SELX:NASDAQSemilux International Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-30 - not real-time

$0.37

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

Semilux International Ltd. (SELX) is trading well below its 20‑day and 50‑day simple moving averages, indicating a bearish price momentum. The RSI sits in the low‑40s, suggesting limited upside momentum but not yet oversold. A bullish MACD histogram combined with a MACD line that has just crossed above its signal line hints at a potential short‑term technical rebound, yet the overall trend remains bearish and volume is on a decreasing trajectory. The stock is hovering near its identified support level around $0.25, far below the current market price, while the resistance ceiling near $0.76 remains untested, creating a wide price corridor.
Fundamentally, SELX reports steep revenue decline, negative margins across the board, and a distressing max drawdown exceeding 85%, reflecting severe earnings pressure. Despite a DCF fair value estimate of roughly $6.80—over 18 times the current price—the company carries a high debt‑to‑equity ratio, negative ROE, and negligible cash flow generation, raising concerns about sustainability. Volatility is extreme (over 200% 30‑day), and the beta of ~0.6 suggests limited correlation with broader market moves, further emphasizing company‑specific risk. No dividend is paid, and analyst coverage is absent, leaving investors without consensus guidance.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 3/10

Key Factors

  • price trading below short‑term moving averages
  • decreasing volume trend
  • bearish overall trend despite marginal MACD signal

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • deep discount to DCF fair value
  • potential upside from AI‑related optical products
  • persistent negative earnings and high leverage

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 4/10

Key Factors

  • substantial valuation gap offering upside if turnaround succeeds
  • exposure to growing niche of high‑precision laser modules
  • possibility of restructuring or strategic partnership to improve cash flow

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-24.60%
Profit Margin-119.72%
ROE-86.63%
ROA-27.11%
Debt/Equity109.06
P/B Ratio2.3
Op. Cash Flow$4.0M
Free Cash Flow$23.4M
Industry P/E37.8

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI43.1
Support$0.25
Resistance$0.76
MA 20$0.43
MA 50$0.46
MA 200$0.77
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index88.48

Valuation

Fair Value$6.80
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue

Risk Assessment

Beta0.59
Volatility227.81%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskHigh

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.