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SEG:NYSESeaport Entertainment Group Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-30 - not real-time

$22.32

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

Seaport Entertainment Group trades at $22.32, essentially flat on its 20‑day (22.33) and 50‑day (21.93) moving averages and just below the 200‑day (22.37) trend line, suggesting a neutral price stance. The RSI of 52.5 confirms the lack of extreme momentum, while the MACD histogram has turned negative, giving a bearish signal that the near‑term bias may tilt lower toward the identified support at $21.29. Volatility remains elevated at 26% over the past 30 days and a beta of 1.23 indicates the stock moves more aggressively than the market, adding to short‑term risk. Fundamentally, the company is struggling – gross margin is –20%, operating margin –88% and free cash flow is a negative $97 M, with a debt‑to‑equity ratio above 20, highlighting significant balance‑sheet pressure. Yet the forward EPS of $0.56 and a forward P/E of ~40 suggest analysts expect a turnaround, and the price‑to‑book of 0.62 points to a market valuation well below its net asset base. Material news includes a recent endorsement by Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square (ranking SEG among the top 10 long‑term picks) and a change of auditor to Grant Thornton, both of which could signal renewed governance focus. The upcoming Q1‑2026 earnings release will be a pivotal catalyst to confirm whether the anticipated earnings improvement materializes.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD histogram and proximity to support level
  • High 30‑day volatility and beta above 1
  • Pending Q1‑2026 earnings could confirm downside or limit losses

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Activist investor endorsement signaling potential strategic overhaul
  • Forward EPS positivity and expectation of earnings recovery
  • Low price‑to‑book ratio indicating asset‑backed upside

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Potential turnaround of operating margins with new governance (auditor change)
  • Asset‑heavy balance sheet offering stability if cash flow improves
  • Strategic positioning in NYC and Las Vegas entertainment real estate markets

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth103.40%
Profit Margin-86.88%
P/E Ratio39.9
ROE-22.23%
ROA-8.10%
Debt/Equity20.34
P/B Ratio0.6
Op. Cash Flow$-49658000
Free Cash Flow$-97123624
Industry P/E33.3

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI52.5
Support$21.29
Resistance$23.23
MA 20$22.33
MA 50$21.93
MA 200$22.37
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index88.27

Valuation

Target Price$30.00
Upside/Downside34.41%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue

Risk Assessment

Beta1.23
Volatility26.18%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.