SCVL:NASDAQShoe Carnival, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-26 - not real-time
$16.72
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Shoe Carnival trades at $16.72, which sits below its 20‑day SMA of $17.02 and its 50‑day SMA of $17.29, signaling a short‑term bearish bias. The stock is priced roughly 30% above the DCF‑derived fair value of $10.29, carries a high 30‑day volatility of 52% and a beta of 1.3, indicating elevated market risk, yet it offers an attractive 3.7% dividend yield with a payout ratio under 50%.
The latest quarter saw revenue dip 2.5% YoY but beat both earnings and EBITDA expectations, providing a short‑term catalyst. Fundamentals show a low price‑to‑book of 0.68 and a forward PE of 9.1, suggesting value characteristics, while operating margins remain negative and cash flow is modest, underscoring the need for caution.
The latest quarter saw revenue dip 2.5% YoY but beat both earnings and EBITDA expectations, providing a short‑term catalyst. Fundamentals show a low price‑to‑book of 0.68 and a forward PE of 9.1, suggesting value characteristics, while operating margins remain negative and cash flow is modest, underscoring the need for caution.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Quarterly earnings beat and strong EBITDA performance
- High dividend yield providing immediate income
- Technical support near $14.91 and bullish MACD histogram
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Low price‑to‑book and forward PE suggest value upside
- Continued revenue contraction and negative operating margin
- Elevated volatility and sector cyclicality
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Current price trading ~30% above DCF fair value
- Persistently declining margins and modest free cash flow
- High beta and volatility increase downside risk over time
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-2.50%
Profit Margin3.31%
P/E Ratio12.4
ROE5.62%
ROA2.65%
Debt/Equity53.64
P/B Ratio0.7
Op. Cash Flow$104.0M
Free Cash Flow$39.6M
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI47.2
Support$14.91
Resistance$19.11
MA 20$17.02
MA 50$17.29
MA 200$19.05
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.39
Valuation
Fair Value$10.29
Target Price$22.00
Upside/Downside31.58%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield3.72%
Risk Assessment
Beta1.30
Volatility52.25%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.