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SCM:NYSEStellus Capital Investment Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-30 - not real-time

$9.56

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Stellus Capital Investment Corp (SCM) is trading below its 20‑day and 50‑day simple moving averages (≈$9.57 and $9.64) and well under the 200‑day SMA (~$12.24), signaling a bearish price environment. The RSI sits near 48, indicating neutral momentum, while the MACD histogram has turned positive (bullish signal) but the overall trend remains down‑trend. Support is identified around $8.82 and resistance near $10.21, with the current price of $9.56 perched just above the support zone. Valuation metrics show a trailing P/E of 10 versus an industry average of 17.5 and a P/B of 0.75, suggesting the stock is materially undervalued. However, the dividend payout ratio exceeds 160% and operating cash flow is negative, raising questions about dividend sustainability despite the eye‑catching 15% yield. The balance sheet is highly leveraged (debt‑to‑equity >170) and the 30‑day volatility exceeds 30%, contributing to a pronounced risk profile.
The consensus analyst rating is “hold” with a median price target of $11.5, implying roughly 20% upside potential. Given the blend of undervaluation, strong dividend appeal, and elevated leverage, investors should weigh short‑term price weakness against medium‑term upside opportunities while monitoring cash‑flow and debt metrics closely.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Price below short‑term moving averages and near support
  • Neutral RSI with modest bullish MACD histogram
  • High dividend payout ratio and negative operating cash flow

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Significant valuation discount relative to industry peers
  • Attractive dividend yield despite sustainability concerns
  • Upside potential indicated by analyst price targets and upside/downside metric

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Elevated leverage and debt‑to‑equity ratio
  • Potential for dividend adjustments if cash‑flow constraints persist
  • Stable sector fundamentals and low geographic concentration

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-1.60%
Profit Margin26.48%
P/E Ratio10.1
ROE7.30%
ROA4.33%
Debt/Equity175.61
P/B Ratio0.7
Op. Cash Flow$-24449764
Free Cash Flow$23.7M
Industry P/E17.5

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI47.8
Support$8.82
Resistance$10.21
MA 20$9.57
MA 50$9.64
MA 200$12.24
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index87.84

Valuation

Target Price$11.00
Upside/Downside15.06%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield15.48%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.70
Volatility33.57%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.