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SCCO:NYSESouthern Copper Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-21 - not real-time

$174.09

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Southern Copper (SCCO) is trading at $174.09, just above its 20‑day SMA (176.66) and 50‑day SMA (175.86), with a bullish trend but a bearish MACD and neutral RSI indicating mixed short‑term momentum. Revenue is surging 36% YoY and earnings are projected to jump nearly 49% YoY, supported by exceptionally high gross (62.7%) and operating margins (58.3%) and a stellar ROE of 46%, while free cash flow remains robust and the dividend yield sits at 2.3% with a 56% payout ratio.
However, the stock appears overvalued—the DCF fair value ($176.20) is close to the current price, yet analyst consensus targets average $158, and the price‑to‑book (12.3×) and PE (29.5×) are elevated. High 30‑day volatility (46%) and a beta of ~2 signal pronounced price swings, and a recent permit revocation in Peru adds regulatory headwinds. Debt‑to‑equity is high at 62%, though cash flow comfortably services interest, and the dividend remains sustainable.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD and high volatility suggest limited upside
  • Current price exceeds analyst targets and fair value
  • Strong dividend provides downside cushion

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained revenue and earnings growth fundamentals
  • Regulatory uncertainty in Peru could delay expansion
  • High debt level may constrain capital allocation

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑term copper demand and superior profitability metrics
  • Robust free cash flow supports dividend and debt reduction
  • Dividend yield and payout ratio attractive for income investors

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth36.20%
Profit Margin34.13%
P/E Ratio29.5
ROE46.34%
ROA23.81%
Debt/Equity62.41
P/B Ratio12.3
Op. Cash Flow$5.7B
Free Cash Flow$4.3B

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI46.5
Support$164.25
Resistance$194.93
MA 20$176.66
MA 50$175.86
MA 200$149.73
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index90.73

Valuation

Fair Value$176.20
Target Price$158.19
Upside/Downside-9.13%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.30%

Risk Assessment

Beta2.02
Volatility46.29%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.