SCCO:NYSESouthern Copper Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-21 - not real-time
$174.09
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Southern Copper (SCCO) is trading at $174.09, just above its 20‑day SMA (176.66) and 50‑day SMA (175.86), with a bullish trend but a bearish MACD and neutral RSI indicating mixed short‑term momentum. Revenue is surging 36% YoY and earnings are projected to jump nearly 49% YoY, supported by exceptionally high gross (62.7%) and operating margins (58.3%) and a stellar ROE of 46%, while free cash flow remains robust and the dividend yield sits at 2.3% with a 56% payout ratio.However, the stock appears overvalued—the DCF fair value ($176.20) is close to the current price, yet analyst consensus targets average $158, and the price‑to‑book (12.3×) and PE (29.5×) are elevated. High 30‑day volatility (46%) and a beta of ~2 signal pronounced price swings, and a recent permit revocation in Peru adds regulatory headwinds. Debt‑to‑equity is high at 62%, though cash flow comfortably services interest, and the dividend remains sustainable.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bearish MACD and high volatility suggest limited upside
- Current price exceeds analyst targets and fair value
- Strong dividend provides downside cushion
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Sustained revenue and earnings growth fundamentals
- Regulatory uncertainty in Peru could delay expansion
- High debt level may constrain capital allocation
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Long‑term copper demand and superior profitability metrics
- Robust free cash flow supports dividend and debt reduction
- Dividend yield and payout ratio attractive for income investors
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth36.20%
Profit Margin34.13%
P/E Ratio29.5
ROE46.34%
ROA23.81%
Debt/Equity62.41
P/B Ratio12.3
Op. Cash Flow$5.7B
Free Cash Flow$4.3B
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI46.5
Support$164.25
Resistance$194.93
MA 20$176.66
MA 50$175.86
MA 200$149.73
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index90.73
Valuation
Fair Value$176.20
Target Price$158.19
Upside/Downside-9.13%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.30%
Risk Assessment
Beta2.02
Volatility46.29%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.