RYAAY:NASDAQRyanair Holdings plc Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-22 - not real-time
$58.43
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Ryanair posted an impressive 40% year‑over‑year profit increase, driven by 11% revenue growth and a 13.9% profit margin, pushing trailing EPS to $4.74 and forward EPS to $5.52. Operating cash flow remains robust at $3.69 bn while the balance sheet shows a comfortable cash position of $3.55 bn against modest debt, supporting a 20.5% payout ratio and a 1.72% dividend yield. The discounted cash‑flow model values the stock at roughly $100, implying a 28% upside from the current $58.43 price, suggesting the shares are materially undervalued. However, the airline sector’s inherent cyclicality and a 52% 30‑day volatility flag heightened price swings. Technicals paint a mixed picture: the price sits below its 20‑, 50‑ and 200‑day moving averages, RSI is neutral at 53, and MACD shows a bullish histogram despite a bearish line. Support sits near $53.14 with resistance at $60.75, indicating limited near‑term upside unless a catalyst lifts sentiment.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price below key moving averages indicating short‑term weakness
- Support level near $53 providing downside cushion
- Strong recent earnings but technical momentum bearish
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Undervalued relative to DCF fair value with ~28% upside
- Robust cash generation and low payout ratio supporting dividend sustainability
- 80% fuel hedge reducing exposure to jet‑fuel price spikes
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Low‑cost business model positioned for post‑cycle recovery in European aviation
- Strong balance sheet with ample liquidity and manageable debt
- Consistent dividend and attractive yield enhancing total return
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth9.40%
Profit Margin13.98%
P/E Ratio12.3
ROE25.37%
ROA8.25%
Debt/Equity14.77
P/B Ratio6.0
Op. Cash Flow$3.7B
Free Cash Flow$-1052300032
Industry P/E29.6
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI53.8
Support$53.14
Resistance$60.75
MA 20$55.80
MA 50$58.31
MA 200$63.31
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.3
Valuation
Fair Value$100.22
Target Price$74.90
Upside/Downside28.19%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.72%
Risk Assessment
Beta1.19
Volatility52.04%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.