We use cookies to analyze site traffic and improve your experience.
By accepting, you consent to the use of analytics cookies.

RYAAY:NASDAQRyanair Holdings plc Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-22 - not real-time

$58.43

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Ryanair posted an impressive 40% year‑over‑year profit increase, driven by 11% revenue growth and a 13.9% profit margin, pushing trailing EPS to $4.74 and forward EPS to $5.52. Operating cash flow remains robust at $3.69 bn while the balance sheet shows a comfortable cash position of $3.55 bn against modest debt, supporting a 20.5% payout ratio and a 1.72% dividend yield. The discounted cash‑flow model values the stock at roughly $100, implying a 28% upside from the current $58.43 price, suggesting the shares are materially undervalued. However, the airline sector’s inherent cyclicality and a 52% 30‑day volatility flag heightened price swings. Technicals paint a mixed picture: the price sits below its 20‑, 50‑ and 200‑day moving averages, RSI is neutral at 53, and MACD shows a bullish histogram despite a bearish line. Support sits near $53.14 with resistance at $60.75, indicating limited near‑term upside unless a catalyst lifts sentiment.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price below key moving averages indicating short‑term weakness
  • Support level near $53 providing downside cushion
  • Strong recent earnings but technical momentum bearish

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued relative to DCF fair value with ~28% upside
  • Robust cash generation and low payout ratio supporting dividend sustainability
  • 80% fuel hedge reducing exposure to jet‑fuel price spikes

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Low‑cost business model positioned for post‑cycle recovery in European aviation
  • Strong balance sheet with ample liquidity and manageable debt
  • Consistent dividend and attractive yield enhancing total return

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth9.40%
Profit Margin13.98%
P/E Ratio12.3
ROE25.37%
ROA8.25%
Debt/Equity14.77
P/B Ratio6.0
Op. Cash Flow$3.7B
Free Cash Flow$-1052300032
Industry P/E29.6

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI53.8
Support$53.14
Resistance$60.75
MA 20$55.80
MA 50$58.31
MA 200$63.31
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.3

Valuation

Fair Value$100.22
Target Price$74.90
Upside/Downside28.19%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.72%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.19
Volatility52.04%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.