RRGB:NASDAQRed Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-26 - not real-time
$4.56
Latest Price
8/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
Red Robin (RRGB) trades at $4.56, hovering just below the recent resistance of $4.94 and comfortably above the identified support of $3.43. The 14‑day RSI sits at 67, indicating momentum that is approaching overbought territory, while a bullish MACD crossover (line above signal) adds a short‑term technical upside. Volume is on the rise and the Fear & Greed Index reads “Extreme Greed,” suggesting strong market appetite despite the stock’s high 30‑day volatility of roughly 75% and a beta exceeding 2.1.
Fundamentally, the company is under pressure: revenue fell 3.6% YoY, margins are thin (gross margin ~14%, operating margin ~2%), and trailing EPS remains negative at –$1.50. However, forward EPS is projected at $0.0675, free cash flow is positive, and the price‑to‑sales ratio is a modest 0.07, implying a potentially attractive valuation floor. The balance sheet is strained with over $515 M of debt against modest cash reserves, yet the analyst consensus (4 analysts) rates the stock a strong‑buy with a mean target price of $10.13, reflecting an upside of more than 120%.
Fundamentally, the company is under pressure: revenue fell 3.6% YoY, margins are thin (gross margin ~14%, operating margin ~2%), and trailing EPS remains negative at –$1.50. However, forward EPS is projected at $0.0675, free cash flow is positive, and the price‑to‑sales ratio is a modest 0.07, implying a potentially attractive valuation floor. The balance sheet is strained with over $515 M of debt against modest cash reserves, yet the analyst consensus (4 analysts) rates the stock a strong‑buy with a mean target price of $10.13, reflecting an upside of more than 120%.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Recent earnings miss and negative EPS
- High volatility and beta
- Bullish MACD and rising volume
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Forward EPS improvement and positive free cash flow
- Low price‑to‑sales ratio and significant upside potential
- New CFO appointment signaling possible operational turnaround
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Heavy debt load requiring restructuring
- Cyclical consumer‑discretionary exposure
- Brand equity and franchise network offering recovery upside
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-3.60%
Profit Margin-2.23%
P/E Ratio67.6
ROA1.37%
P/B Ratio-0.8
Op. Cash Flow$24.4M
Free Cash Flow$26.9M
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI67.1
Support$3.43
Resistance$4.94
MA 20$3.84
MA 50$3.56
MA 200$4.67
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.75
Valuation
Target Price$10.13
Upside/Downside122.04%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta2.10
Volatility74.79%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.