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RRGB:NASDAQRed Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-26 - not real-time

$4.56

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

Red Robin (RRGB) trades at $4.56, hovering just below the recent resistance of $4.94 and comfortably above the identified support of $3.43. The 14‑day RSI sits at 67, indicating momentum that is approaching overbought territory, while a bullish MACD crossover (line above signal) adds a short‑term technical upside. Volume is on the rise and the Fear & Greed Index reads “Extreme Greed,” suggesting strong market appetite despite the stock’s high 30‑day volatility of roughly 75% and a beta exceeding 2.1.
Fundamentally, the company is under pressure: revenue fell 3.6% YoY, margins are thin (gross margin ~14%, operating margin ~2%), and trailing EPS remains negative at –$1.50. However, forward EPS is projected at $0.0675, free cash flow is positive, and the price‑to‑sales ratio is a modest 0.07, implying a potentially attractive valuation floor. The balance sheet is strained with over $515 M of debt against modest cash reserves, yet the analyst consensus (4 analysts) rates the stock a strong‑buy with a mean target price of $10.13, reflecting an upside of more than 120%.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Recent earnings miss and negative EPS
  • High volatility and beta
  • Bullish MACD and rising volume

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Forward EPS improvement and positive free cash flow
  • Low price‑to‑sales ratio and significant upside potential
  • New CFO appointment signaling possible operational turnaround

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Heavy debt load requiring restructuring
  • Cyclical consumer‑discretionary exposure
  • Brand equity and franchise network offering recovery upside

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-3.60%
Profit Margin-2.23%
P/E Ratio67.6
ROA1.37%
P/B Ratio-0.8
Op. Cash Flow$24.4M
Free Cash Flow$26.9M

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI67.1
Support$3.43
Resistance$4.94
MA 20$3.84
MA 50$3.56
MA 200$4.67
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.75

Valuation

Target Price$10.13
Upside/Downside122.04%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta2.10
Volatility74.79%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.