RRGB:NASDAQRed Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-29 - not real-time
$3.81
Latest Price
8/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
Red Robin (RRGB) is trading well below its consensus target range, offering more than 150% upside potential. The stock is currently priced beneath its 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages, indicating a bearish technical backdrop, yet the MACD has turned bullish and volume is on the rise, suggesting a possible short‑term bounce. Fundamentals are weak – the company reports negative earnings, slim gross margins and a high debt load – but analysts remain optimistic, reflected in a "strong buy" consensus and a forward PE in the high‑60s.
The extreme‑greed sentiment in the market, combined with a low current price relative to historical highs, creates a speculative play: upside is attractive if the turnaround in operations materializes, but the high beta, 30‑day volatility above 60%, and sizable debt amplify risk.
The extreme‑greed sentiment in the market, combined with a low current price relative to historical highs, creates a speculative play: upside is attractive if the turnaround in operations materializes, but the high beta, 30‑day volatility above 60%, and sizable debt amplify risk.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Price below short‑term moving averages indicating bearish bias
- Bullish MACD crossover and rising volume hint at a potential bounce
- High volatility and beta increase downside risk
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Consensus target price suggests >150% upside
- Analyst consensus is strong‑buy despite current earnings weakness
- Improving cash flow trends and potential operational turnaround
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Fundamental challenges – negative margins, high debt, zero dividend
- Consumer‑cyclical exposure makes performance tied to discretionary spending
- Long‑term upside hinges on successful restructuring and brand revitalization
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-5.70%
Profit Margin-1.92%
P/E Ratio67.2
ROA1.38%
P/B Ratio-0.6
Op. Cash Flow$37.0M
Free Cash Flow$31.5M
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI54.8
Support$2.67
Resistance$4.37
MA 20$3.60
MA 50$3.63
MA 200$4.88
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.59
Valuation
Target Price$10.13
Upside/Downside165.75%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta2.08
Volatility66.11%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.