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RRBI:NASDAQRed River Bancshares, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-29 - not real-time

$95.10

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Red River Bancshares is trading at $95.1, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA of 93.75 and 50‑day SMA of 90.81, indicating a short‑term bullish bias. The RSI sits at 60.5, well within the neutral zone, while the MACD shows a bearish crossover (line below signal, histogram –0.21), suggesting modest downside pressure. Valuation metrics are attractive: the trailing P/E of 14.9 is below the industry average of 17.5 and the DCF‑derived fair value of $144.8 implies significant upside. Revenue growth of 13.5% and an operating margin of 44.9% demonstrate solid earnings momentum, and the dividend yield of 0.7% is supported by a low payout ratio of 8.5%.
Liquidity is moderate with average daily volume around 60k and a decreasing volume trend, while the stock’s beta of roughly 0.8 and 30‑day volatility of 21.6% point to medium risk. The balance sheet is strong, featuring $213M in cash against negligible debt, and a book‑value per share of $55.5. Recent material news includes a quarterly dividend increase and a private stock repurchase, both reinforcing shareholder‑friendly capital allocation. Overall, the combination of undervaluation, growth fundamentals, and a sustainable dividend supports a positive outlook despite the slight bearish technical signal.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price above 20‑ and 50‑day SMAs indicating bullish bias
  • Bearish MACD crossover and decreasing volume adding caution
  • Support level near $89 providing downside cushion

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued relative to peers (P/E 14.9 vs industry 17.5)
  • Revenue growth of 13.5% and strong operating margins
  • Dividend increase and low payout ratio supporting cash flow

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Robust balance sheet with high cash and negligible debt
  • DCF fair value of $144.8 suggesting long‑run upside
  • Sustainable dividend and consistent earnings generation

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth13.50%
Profit Margin34.71%
P/E Ratio14.9
ROE12.49%
ROA1.32%
P/B Ratio1.7
Op. Cash Flow$44.8M
Industry P/E17.5

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI60.5
Support$89.04
Resistance$98.85
MA 20$93.75
MA 50$90.81
MA 200$74.44
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.59

Valuation

Fair Value$144.83
Target Price$101.00
Upside/Downside6.20%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.70%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.82
Volatility21.62%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.