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RGR:NYSESturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-20 - not real-time

$39.19

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Sturm, Ruger & Company is trading slightly above its short‑term moving averages, supporting a mild bullish bias, while the MACD has turned bearish and the RSI sits in a neutral zone, suggesting mixed short‑term momentum. Volume is on the rise, providing a healthier liquidity backdrop as the price holds comfortably above recent support. The 30‑day volatility is elevated, reflecting a price swing that can be uncomfortable for risk‑averse investors. A strategic cooperation agreement with Beretta adds a compelling narrative of potential market synergies and board influence, which has already lifted the stock modestly. Fundamentally, revenue is growing modestly but margins remain thin, and the company posted a negative profit margin in the latest period. The balance sheet shows ample cash relative to debt, and free cash flow remains positive, underpinning financial stability. The forward earnings outlook is markedly better than the trailing results, indicating a turnaround in profitability. Valuation metrics reveal a price below both the discounted cash flow fair value and the industry’s average price‑to‑earnings multiple, implying a noticeable upside potential. No dividend is currently paid, so income‑focused investors will find the stock unsuitable. Regulatory scrutiny surrounding firearms remains a headwind, but the company’s domestic focus limits geographic exposure. Overall, the blend of undervalued pricing, strategic partnership, and solid cash generation supports a cautiously optimistic stance.
Given the elevated volatility and regulatory considerations, investors should weigh the upside against the inherent sector risks, but the current technical and valuation setup leans toward a buying opportunity for those comfortable with a medium‑term horizon.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Mixed technical signals with bullish trend but bearish MACD
  • Support level above current price offering downside cushion
  • Upcoming earnings release could clarify momentum

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued relative to DCF fair value and industry PE
  • Strategic partnership with Beretta creating growth avenues
  • Positive free cash flow and strong balance sheet

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Sustainable cash generation despite thin margins
  • Long‑term upside from partnership synergies
  • Regulatory environment remains a risk but domestic focus limits exposure

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth4.10%
Profit Margin-2.18%
P/E Ratio19.8
ROE-3.98%
ROA-3.01%
Debt/Equity0.58
P/B Ratio2.2
Op. Cash Flow$61.9M
Free Cash Flow$35.6M
Industry P/E29.6

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI43.0
Support$36.29
Resistance$43.89
MA 20$40.74
MA 50$40.72
MA 200$37.94
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.95

Valuation

Fair Value$40.96
Target Price$47.00
Upside/Downside19.93%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta0.90
Volatility28.97%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.