QEWS:QSENebras Energy Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-16 - not real-time
QAR 14.44
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Nebras Energy Q.P.S.C. trades at QAR 14.44, below its 20‑day SMA (14.87) and 50‑day SMA (15.23), with an RSI of 37 and a bearish MACD, signaling short‑term weakness. Yet its trailing P/E of 11.6 is well under the industry average of 23.3 and it offers a 5.19% dividend yield with a 62.5% payout ratio, presenting clear value appeal. The DCF‑derived fair value of QAR 9.77 indicates the market price is roughly 35% above intrinsic estimates, implying downside risk.
Fundamentally, operating margins remain healthy at 34% and gross margin at 32.7%, but revenue fell 4.1% YoY and free cash flow is negative, while net debt exceeds QAR 4.3 bn after cash offsets. The pending acquisition with ENGIE could provide a growth catalyst, yet regulatory and geographic concentration in Qatar introduce medium‑level risk, leaving the stock in a mixed position between value attractiveness and bearish technical signals.
Fundamentally, operating margins remain healthy at 34% and gross margin at 32.7%, but revenue fell 4.1% YoY and free cash flow is negative, while net debt exceeds QAR 4.3 bn after cash offsets. The pending acquisition with ENGIE could provide a growth catalyst, yet regulatory and geographic concentration in Qatar introduce medium‑level risk, leaving the stock in a mixed position between value attractiveness and bearish technical signals.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Price below short‑term moving averages
- Bearish MACD and RSI indicating limited upside
- Attractive dividend yield provides income cushion
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Valuation discount to industry peers (low P/E)
- Potential earnings uplift from ENGIE acquisition
- Stable regulated cash flows supporting dividend
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Consistent dividend payout and regulated revenue base
- High net debt and negative free cash flow limit growth
- Long‑term sector stability offset by geographic concentration
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-4.10%
Profit Margin46.54%
P/E Ratio11.6
ROE8.73%
ROA1.96%
Debt/Equity44.24
P/B Ratio1.0
Op. Cash FlowQAR1.6B
Free Cash FlowQAR-1287940864
Industry P/E23.3
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI37.1
SupportQAR 14.15
ResistanceQAR 15.55
MA 20QAR 14.87
MA 50QAR 15.23
MA 200QAR 15.60
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index72.88
Valuation
Fair ValueQAR 9.77
Target PriceQAR 19.55
Upside/Downside35.39%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield5.19%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.13
Volatility18.72%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.