PTBA:IDXPT Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk Analysis

PT Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk (PTBA) is trading at IDR 2,910, well above its DCF‑derived fair value of IDR 1,766, implying an upside‑downside of –18% and an overvalued market price. The stock sits above its 20‑day (2,792), 50‑day (2,607) and 200‑day (2,479) SMAs, the RSI is at 65, and the MACD shows a bullish crossover, all pointing to continued short‑term momentum, while volume is on an upward trend. However, the company reported a 56% drop in net profit for Jan‑Sep 2025, revenue is down 1.2% YoY, and the dividend payout ratio exceeds 110%, raising concerns about dividend sustainability. The recent corporate name change to a Persero reflects compliance with new state‑owned enterprise legislation but does not alter the underlying operational challenges.
The balance sheet shows a high debt‑to‑equity of 19.6, modest ROE of 16%, and a beta of 0.5, indicating low systematic risk but a 30‑day volatility of 32% and a max drawdown of 28% signal notable price swings. Given the low growth profile, elevated valuation multiples relative to industry peers, and sector headwinds for thermal coal, the outlook leans toward a value‑oriented, risk‑adjusted sell stance over medium to long horizons.