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PHM:NYSEPulteGroup, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-24 - not real-time

$127.56

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

PulteGroup is trading just above its 20‑day moving average with a bullish MACD histogram and a neutral trend, while the RSI sits in the mid‑range, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
The latest quarter showed a double‑digit revenue decline year‑over‑year and earnings per share that fell slightly short of consensus, yet the company maintains healthy operating and profit margins, a low single‑digit PE multiple and a DCF valuation that sits well above the current market price. Analysts have upgraded the stock to an outperform stance and the average one‑year price target reflects a notable upside, supported by a modest dividend payout and strong cash flow generation. These fundamentals, combined with a strategic expansion in Florida, point to an undervalued position with upside potential, though short‑term volatility remains elevated due to broader housing market softness.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Upcoming earnings release could confirm or reverse the recent miss
  • Technical indicators show bullish momentum but price is near short‑term resistance
  • Housing market softness adds uncertainty

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • DCF valuation indicates substantial upside relative to current price
  • Evercore upgrade and rising analyst price targets signal improving sentiment
  • Strategic partnership expanding footprint in a high‑growth region

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑term demographic demand for single‑family homes
  • Sustainable dividend supported by low payout ratio and strong cash flow
  • Resilient balance sheet with manageable debt levels

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-12.40%
Profit Margin12.14%
P/E Ratio11.5
ROE16.18%
ROA10.01%
Debt/Equity17.57
P/B Ratio1.9
Op. Cash Flow$1.9B
Free Cash Flow$3.1B

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI56.9
Support$113.26
Resistance$133.14
MA 20$121.62
MA 50$126.02
MA 200$125.18
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index88.02

Valuation

Fair Value$212.78
Target Price$135.21
Upside/Downside6.00%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.80%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.98
Volatility36.05%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.