PHM:NYSEPulteGroup, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-24 - not real-time
$127.56
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
PulteGroup is trading just above its 20‑day moving average with a bullish MACD histogram and a neutral trend, while the RSI sits in the mid‑range, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
The latest quarter showed a double‑digit revenue decline year‑over‑year and earnings per share that fell slightly short of consensus, yet the company maintains healthy operating and profit margins, a low single‑digit PE multiple and a DCF valuation that sits well above the current market price. Analysts have upgraded the stock to an outperform stance and the average one‑year price target reflects a notable upside, supported by a modest dividend payout and strong cash flow generation. These fundamentals, combined with a strategic expansion in Florida, point to an undervalued position with upside potential, though short‑term volatility remains elevated due to broader housing market softness.
The latest quarter showed a double‑digit revenue decline year‑over‑year and earnings per share that fell slightly short of consensus, yet the company maintains healthy operating and profit margins, a low single‑digit PE multiple and a DCF valuation that sits well above the current market price. Analysts have upgraded the stock to an outperform stance and the average one‑year price target reflects a notable upside, supported by a modest dividend payout and strong cash flow generation. These fundamentals, combined with a strategic expansion in Florida, point to an undervalued position with upside potential, though short‑term volatility remains elevated due to broader housing market softness.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Upcoming earnings release could confirm or reverse the recent miss
- Technical indicators show bullish momentum but price is near short‑term resistance
- Housing market softness adds uncertainty
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- DCF valuation indicates substantial upside relative to current price
- Evercore upgrade and rising analyst price targets signal improving sentiment
- Strategic partnership expanding footprint in a high‑growth region
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Long‑term demographic demand for single‑family homes
- Sustainable dividend supported by low payout ratio and strong cash flow
- Resilient balance sheet with manageable debt levels
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-12.40%
Profit Margin12.14%
P/E Ratio11.5
ROE16.18%
ROA10.01%
Debt/Equity17.57
P/B Ratio1.9
Op. Cash Flow$1.9B
Free Cash Flow$3.1B
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI56.9
Support$113.26
Resistance$133.14
MA 20$121.62
MA 50$126.02
MA 200$125.18
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index88.02
Valuation
Fair Value$212.78
Target Price$135.21
Upside/Downside6.00%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.80%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.98
Volatility36.05%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.