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PETR3:BMFBOVESPAPetroleo Brasileiro SA Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time

R$46.62

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Technical outlook: The share trades well above the 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages, confirming a strong bullish bias. Momentum indicators are supportive, with a bullish MACD crossover and an accelerating volume trend, while the RSI sits in the overbought zone, suggesting the price may test the nearby resistance level before a short‑term pull‑back. The current price comfortably sits above the identified support zone, giving the downside a defined cushion.
Fundamental perspective: Valuation metrics are compelling – the price‑to‑earnings multiple is dramatically lower than the industry average and the discounted cash‑flow model points to substantial upside. A dividend yield near ten percent, coupled with a modest payout ratio and robust operating cash flow, underpins the dividend’s sustainability. Although leverage is elevated, the company’s cash reserves and strong cash generation mitigate immediate financial stress. Low beta and a moderate volatility profile further temper risk, supporting a bullish stance for medium‑ to long‑term horizons.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • RSI in overbought territory
  • Proximity to the 52‑week resistance level
  • Bullish MACD confirming trend but signaling possible short‑term consolidation

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • PE far below industry average indicating valuation headroom
  • High dividend yield with sustainable payout
  • Strong operating cash flow offsetting leverage concerns

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Integrated oil & gas business provides diversified revenue streams
  • Low beta and moderate volatility support stable return profile
  • DCF fair‑value estimate suggests significant upside over current price

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth5.00%
Profit Margin22.13%
P/E Ratio5.7
ROE28.18%
ROA8.61%
Debt/Equity91.96
P/B Ratio1.4
Op. Cash FlowR$200.3B
Free Cash FlowR$85.0B
Industry P/E20.4

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI79.1
SupportR$38.81
ResistanceR$48.24
MA 20R$42.57
MA 50R$38.23
MA 200R$34.80
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index80.32

Valuation

Fair ValueR$87.27
Target PriceR$41.67
Upside/Downside-10.61%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield9.92%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.36
Volatility28.43%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.