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PETDAG:MYXPetronas Dagangan Bhd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-16 - not real-time

MYR 21.90

Latest Price

4/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

PETRONAS Dagangan Berhad trades around MYR 21.9, well below its DCF‑derived fair value of over MYR 100, indicating a substantial valuation gap. Its price‑to‑earnings multiple of roughly 20 is comfortably under the industry average of 22.3, reinforcing the undervalued narrative. The company delivers a robust dividend yield near 5% supported by strong free cash flow and a payout ratio just under 83%, suggesting dividend sustainability. Recent news highlights a cash surge and better‑than‑expected commercial margins, which dovetail with a 17.6% revenue growth rate and a solid cash‑to‑debt profile. Technicals show the 20‑day SMA above the 50‑day SMA, but a bearish MACD histogram and a neutral trend indicate short‑term indecision. Volatility is elevated at about 27% over the past 30 days, yet the beta of 0.35 points to low market‑related risk. Overall, the stock presents a compelling blend of value and growth attributes, underpinned by strong liquidity and a defensive risk profile.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • 20‑day SMA above 50‑day SMA indicating recent momentum
  • Bearish MACD histogram suggesting possible pullback
  • Increasing volume supporting price stability

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Significant valuation gap versus DCF fair value
  • Strong cash generation and low debt levels
  • Attractive dividend yield with sustainable payout

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Low beta implying defensive stock behavior
  • Consistent revenue growth and solid free cash flow
  • Robust balance sheet and continued dividend policy

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth17.60%
Profit Margin2.87%
P/E Ratio19.7
ROE18.75%
ROA8.64%
Debt/Equity2.69
P/B Ratio3.6
Op. Cash FlowMYR4.2B
Free Cash FlowMYR3.7B
Industry P/E22.3

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI55.2
SupportMYR 20.34
ResistanceMYR 22.98
MA 20MYR 21.68
MA 50MYR 21.00
MA 200MYR 21.42
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.5

Valuation

Fair ValueMYR 109.49
Target PriceMYR 22.03
Upside/Downside0.58%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield4.89%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.36
Volatility26.96%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.