PEP:NASDAQPepsiCo, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-09 - not real-time
$161.61
Latest Price
4/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
PepsiCo’s stock is trading at $161.6, comfortably above its 20‑day (≈$166) and 50‑day (≈$155) moving averages, confirming a bullish trend despite a modest RSI of 49. The MACD histogram has turned negative, and volume has been on a downtrend, suggesting short‑term pressure near the identified support at $156.1. With a beta of roughly 0.18 the share shows very low market sensitivity, while 30‑day volatility sits at 26%, indicating moderate price swings for a consumer‑defensive name. The dividend yield of 3.57% and a payout ratio near 94% remain attractive, supported by strong operating cash flow and a ROE of 43%.
Fundamentally, the company delivers 5.6% revenue growth, 14% operating margin and a solid free cash flow generation of $8.2 bn, but the DCF‑derived fair value of $74.5 places the current price in the overvalued zone, even though analysts have lifted the median target to $172 and UBS now sees $190. The “Extreme Greed” sentiment on the Fear‑Greed Index adds a timing caution, while a pending antitrust lawsuit introduces medium regulatory risk. Overall, the stock offers a reliable dividend and resilient franchise, but price appreciation may be limited unless earnings acceleration materializes.
Fundamentally, the company delivers 5.6% revenue growth, 14% operating margin and a solid free cash flow generation of $8.2 bn, but the DCF‑derived fair value of $74.5 places the current price in the overvalued zone, even though analysts have lifted the median target to $172 and UBS now sees $190. The “Extreme Greed” sentiment on the Fear‑Greed Index adds a timing caution, while a pending antitrust lawsuit introduces medium regulatory risk. Overall, the stock offers a reliable dividend and resilient franchise, but price appreciation may be limited unless earnings acceleration materializes.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price above 20‑day and 50‑day SMAs indicating bullish bias
- Bearish MACD histogram and decreasing volume signaling short‑term weakness
- Support level near $156 providing downside cushion
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Analyst upgrades and raised price targets (median $172, UBS $190)
- Strong cash generation and attractive dividend yield
- Revenue growth and solid operating margins supporting earnings expansion
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Durable brand franchise and consistent dividend payments
- Overvaluation relative to DCF fair value creates price ceiling risk
- Medium regulatory risk from pending antitrust litigation
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth5.60%
Profit Margin8.77%
P/E Ratio27.0
ROE42.85%
ROA9.05%
Debt/Equity258.08
P/B Ratio10.8
Op. Cash Flow$12.1B
Free Cash Flow$8.2B
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI49.1
Support$156.09
Resistance$171.48
MA 20$165.69
MA 50$154.91
MA 200$145.46
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index100
Valuation
Fair Value$74.47
Target Price$170.81
Upside/Downside5.69%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.57%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.18
Volatility26.23%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.