PCAR:NASDAQPACCAR Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time
$120.67
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
PACCAR trades at $120.67, sitting below its 20‑day (125.14) and 50‑day (121.77) simple moving averages, with a bearish MACD histogram and an RSI of 43, indicating limited short‑term momentum. Fundamentally, the company faces a 13.7% revenue decline, thin margins (gross 14%, operating 9.2%) and a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 81.9%, though cash flow remains solid and the dividend payout ratio is modest at 29%, supporting dividend sustainability. Analyst consensus is bullish, with a median price target of $125 and an estimated upside of ~3.6%, while the Fear & Greed Index signals “Extreme Greed,” suggesting optimism may be overstated. Recent news highlights Morgan Stanley raising its target to $109 and a Seeking Alpha note on inventory resets and regulatory tailwinds, providing some catalyst for the next earnings cycle. However, the DCF fair value of $62.23 is far below the current price, flagging potential overvaluation despite a forward PE of 17.85 that is attractive relative to the industry average.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price below short‑term moving averages
- Bearish MACD and elevated 30‑day volatility (≈26%)
- Proximity to support at $116.55
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Analyst median target of $125 implies modest upside
- Forward PE of 17.85 suggests value relative to peers
- Positive earnings outlook from inventory reset and regulatory tailwinds
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- High debt load versus cash balances
- DCF fair value far below market price
- Stable dividend yield and sustainable payout
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-13.70%
Profit Margin8.35%
P/E Ratio26.8
ROE12.92%
ROA4.37%
Debt/Equity81.94
P/B Ratio3.3
Op. Cash Flow$4.4B
Free Cash Flow$2.8B
Industry P/E29.5
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI43.5
Support$116.55
Resistance$130.70
MA 20$125.14
MA 50$121.77
MA 200$104.63
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index75.89
Valuation
Fair Value$62.23
Target Price$125.08
Upside/Downside3.65%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield1.09%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.90
Volatility25.93%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.