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PCAR:NASDAQPACCAR Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time

$120.67

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

PACCAR trades at $120.67, sitting below its 20‑day (125.14) and 50‑day (121.77) simple moving averages, with a bearish MACD histogram and an RSI of 43, indicating limited short‑term momentum. Fundamentally, the company faces a 13.7% revenue decline, thin margins (gross 14%, operating 9.2%) and a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 81.9%, though cash flow remains solid and the dividend payout ratio is modest at 29%, supporting dividend sustainability. Analyst consensus is bullish, with a median price target of $125 and an estimated upside of ~3.6%, while the Fear & Greed Index signals “Extreme Greed,” suggesting optimism may be overstated. Recent news highlights Morgan Stanley raising its target to $109 and a Seeking Alpha note on inventory resets and regulatory tailwinds, providing some catalyst for the next earnings cycle. However, the DCF fair value of $62.23 is far below the current price, flagging potential overvaluation despite a forward PE of 17.85 that is attractive relative to the industry average.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price below short‑term moving averages
  • Bearish MACD and elevated 30‑day volatility (≈26%)
  • Proximity to support at $116.55

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Analyst median target of $125 implies modest upside
  • Forward PE of 17.85 suggests value relative to peers
  • Positive earnings outlook from inventory reset and regulatory tailwinds

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • High debt load versus cash balances
  • DCF fair value far below market price
  • Stable dividend yield and sustainable payout

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-13.70%
Profit Margin8.35%
P/E Ratio26.8
ROE12.92%
ROA4.37%
Debt/Equity81.94
P/B Ratio3.3
Op. Cash Flow$4.4B
Free Cash Flow$2.8B
Industry P/E29.5

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI43.5
Support$116.55
Resistance$130.70
MA 20$125.14
MA 50$121.77
MA 200$104.63
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index75.89

Valuation

Fair Value$62.23
Target Price$125.08
Upside/Downside3.65%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield1.09%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.90
Volatility25.93%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.