OPXS:NASDAQOptex Systems Holdings, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-22 - not real-time
$10.85
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Optex Systems (OPXS) is trading at $10.85, just above its technical support of $10.73, while the 20‑day SMA (12.34) sits below the 50‑day (12.76) and 200‑day (13.46) averages, confirming a bearish price structure. Momentum indicators are weak – RSI is at 31 and the MACD line remains below its signal, both signaling continued downside pressure.
Despite the technical weakness, fundamentals show a healthier picture: the stock trades at a forward PE of 12.6 versus an industry average of 30.8, and revenue is growing at 11.6% YoY. A recent $1.23 million U.S. government contract and a new “Buy” initiation from Freedom Broker add positive catalyst potential, while the DCF fair value of $8.27 suggests the market may be pricing in a premium.
Despite the technical weakness, fundamentals show a healthier picture: the stock trades at a forward PE of 12.6 versus an industry average of 30.8, and revenue is growing at 11.6% YoY. A recent $1.23 million U.S. government contract and a new “Buy” initiation from Freedom Broker add positive catalyst potential, while the DCF fair value of $8.27 suggests the market may be pricing in a premium.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price hovering just above technical support
- Bearish MACD and low RSI
- Recent contract adds near‑term upside but limited catalyst
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Undervalued relative to industry PE
- Revenue growth and expanding defense backlog
- Buy initiation from Freedom Broker
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Stable government defense spending
- High volatility and beta indicating price swings
- Modest profitability margins and reliance on a few large contracts
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth11.60%
Profit Margin10.75%
P/E Ratio16.7
ROE20.43%
ROA14.46%
Debt/Equity7.21
P/B Ratio3.0
Op. Cash Flow$4.0M
Free Cash Flow$2.4M
Industry P/E30.8
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI31.0
Support$10.73
Resistance$14.00
MA 20$12.34
MA 50$12.76
MA 200$13.46
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index87.04
Valuation
Fair Value$8.27
Target Price$16.10
Upside/Downside48.39%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta1.87
Volatility47.40%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.