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ON:NASDAQON Semiconductor Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-29 - not real-time

$119.70

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

ON Semiconductor is trading well above its 20‑day (≈111), 50‑day (≈89) and 200‑day (≈64) moving averages, indicating a strong bullish bias. RSI sits at 63, suggesting momentum remains positive but not yet overbought, while the MACD line sits just above its signal, confirming bullish momentum. The stock’s price of $119.7 sits between a clear support level near $96 and resistance around $129, leaving limited upside of roughly 8% and a downside potential of about 12% based on the DCF fair value of $51. Volatility is elevated at roughly 66% over the past 30 days and beta exceeds 2.0, highlighting heightened market sensitivity. Fundamentals show solid revenue growth of 4.7% YoY, a respectable gross margin of 42.7% and operating cash flow exceeding $1.3 bn, but valuation metrics are stretched with a trailing PE of 88 versus an industry average of 42 and a price‑to‑book of 6.4. The company pays no dividend, eliminating income‑focused appeal. Recent headlines emphasize ON’s exposure to EVs, renewables, automation and AI data centers, reinforcing its growth narrative despite the current premium pricing. Decreasing volume trends suggest a potential softening of buying pressure, which, combined with the overvalued pricing, warrants caution in the near term. Overall, the stock balances strong operational fundamentals and sector tailwinds against a high valuation and market risk profile.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Technical momentum is bullish but price is stretched relative to fair value
  • Elevated volatility and beta increase downside risk
  • Decreasing volume may signal weakening short‑term buying pressure

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Strong revenue growth and exposure to high‑growth EV and AI data‑center markets
  • Robust operating cash flow and healthy margins support earnings expansion
  • Forward PE of 28 suggests earnings acceleration could narrow valuation gap

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Strategic positioning in power, analog and intelligent sensing segments with secular demand
  • Consistent cash generation and manageable debt profile enable reinvestment
  • Long‑term industry tailwinds in electrification, automation and renewable technologies

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth4.70%
Profit Margin9.46%
P/E Ratio88.0
ROE7.49%
ROA6.83%
Debt/Equity44.34
P/B Ratio6.4
Op. Cash Flow$1.4B
Free Cash Flow$1.3B
Industry P/E41.7

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI63.7
Support$96.08
Resistance$129.13
MA 20$111.13
MA 50$88.95
MA 200$63.58
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index94.21

Valuation

Fair Value$51.02
Target Price$105.45
Upside/Downside-11.91%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta2.02
Volatility65.90%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.