ON:NASDAQON Semiconductor Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-18 - not real-time
$119.77
Latest Price
8/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
ON Semiconductor is trading well above its long‑term trend, with the 20‑day SMA comfortably above the 50‑day SMA while the 200‑day SMA sits far below the current price, signaling bullish momentum on the price chart. However, the MACD histogram is negative and the MACD line sits below its signal line, indicating short‑term bearish pressure, and the RSI hovers around the mid‑50s, suggesting no clear overbought or oversold condition.
Fundamentally, the stock appears significantly overvalued – the DCF‑derived fair value is roughly half the market price and the trailing P/E is more than double the industry average, though forward earnings multiples have narrowed. The company benefits from strong exposure to AI‑driven power infrastructure, electric‑vehicle and renewable‑energy markets, and recent analyst sentiment remains positive (Buy consensus). Recent market turbulence, including a sharp Nasdaq sell‑off and broader AI infrastructure headwinds, adds short‑term downside risk, but the underlying growth narrative remains intact.
Fundamentally, the stock appears significantly overvalued – the DCF‑derived fair value is roughly half the market price and the trailing P/E is more than double the industry average, though forward earnings multiples have narrowed. The company benefits from strong exposure to AI‑driven power infrastructure, electric‑vehicle and renewable‑energy markets, and recent analyst sentiment remains positive (Buy consensus). Recent market turbulence, including a sharp Nasdaq sell‑off and broader AI infrastructure headwinds, adds short‑term downside risk, but the underlying growth narrative remains intact.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bearish MACD signal and recent Nasdaq volatility
- Price still above key support levels
- High short‑term volatility and beta
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Robust revenue growth and expanding AI/EV exposure
- Valuation gap suggests limited upside until price correction
- Increasing trading volume supporting liquidity
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Secular demand for power semiconductors in AI data centers and electric vehicles
- Strong cash generation and healthy free‑cash‑flow profile
- Strategic positioning in intelligent sensing and power solutions
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth4.70%
Profit Margin9.46%
P/E Ratio88.1
ROE7.49%
ROA6.83%
Debt/Equity44.34
P/B Ratio6.4
Op. Cash Flow$1.4B
Free Cash Flow$1.3B
Industry P/E38.1
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI53.6
Support$107.04
Resistance$134.92
MA 20$120.62
MA 50$105.56
MA 200$68.50
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.55
Valuation
Fair Value$51.41
Target Price$107.00
Upside/Downside-10.66%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta2.17
Volatility82.10%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.