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RDDT:NYSEReddit, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-03 - not real-time

$169.13

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

Reddit, Inc. (RDDT) posted a spectacular Q1 CY2026 revenue surge of 69.1% YoY to $663.4 million, delivering GAAP EPS of $1.01—nearly 80% ahead of consensus. The company’s ultra‑high gross margin (≈91%) and solid operating (27.5%) and profit margins (28.6%) underscore a scalable business model, while cash on hand exceeds $2.7 billion and debt is negligible. Technically, the MACD histogram remains bullish, the RSI sits at a neutral 57, and volume is on an upward trend, yet the 30‑day volatility is extreme at over 75% and beta hovers around 1.8, signalling pronounced price swings. The current market price of $169.13 sits well above the DCF‑derived fair value of $120, implying an overvaluation of roughly 30% despite analyst targets averaging $227 and a “Buy” consensus. Nonetheless, the fear‑greed index reads “Extreme Greed,” and forward‑looking guidance for the next quarter tops expectations, suggesting momentum may persist in the near term.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD and earnings beat support near‑term stability
  • Extreme price volatility and high beta increase downside risk
  • Current price still below analyst target median, limiting upside

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained 69% revenue growth and 74% ad‑revenue expansion
  • Strong cash position and minimal debt provide financial flexibility
  • Analyst consensus “Buy” with median price target near $230

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • High gross margins and recurring community engagement underpin durability
  • Valuation premium above DCF fair value raises concerns of overpaying
  • Regulatory scrutiny of user‑generated content could affect growth trajectory

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth69.10%
Profit Margin28.60%
P/E Ratio48.3
ROE26.22%
ROA13.11%
Debt/Equity0.67
P/B Ratio10.2
Op. Cash Flow$875.6M
Free Cash Flow$564.1M
Industry P/E16.7

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI57.2
Support$139.55
Resistance$182.65
MA 20$159.02
MA 50$152.04
MA 200$190.79
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.43

Valuation

Fair Value$120.13
Target Price$224.92
Upside/Downside32.99%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta1.78
Volatility75.08%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.