NXRT:NYSENexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-06 - not real-time
$29.01
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
NexPoint Residential Trust (NXRT) is trading at $29.01, just above the 20‑day SMA of 29.13 and comfortably above the 50‑day SMA of 27.61, but still below the 200‑day SMA of 29.75, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish longer‑term bias. The RSI sits at 53.7, reinforcing a lack of clear momentum, while the MACD histogram is negative and the signal line is flagged as bearish, suggesting short‑term pressure. Volatility remains elevated at over 32% for the past 30 days, and the stock is hovering near its technical support of 27.92 with resistance around 30.31, limiting immediate upside. The dividend yield is attractive at 7.31% with a payout ratio near 47%, but earnings are negative (trailing EPS –1.26) and the forward PE is deeply negative at -14.36. The balance sheet is highly leveraged, reflected by a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 565 and total debt exceeding $1.5 B, while cash on hand is under $30 M, raising concerns about debt service sustainability. Despite these headwinds, the stock’s beta of 0.53 points to lower market‑wide volatility, and the analyst consensus remains a hold with a modest upside potential of roughly 4.8% toward the median price target of $30.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- High dividend yield but negative earnings
- Bearish MACD and neutral price action
- Elevated leverage and limited cash reserves
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Modest upside to target median price
- Potential for value‑add asset improvements
- Continued debt‑service pressure
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Unsustainable leverage and negative ROE
- Risk of dividend cuts if earnings do not improve
- Exposure to sector‑specific headwinds in residential REITs
Key Metrics & Analysis
REIT Metrics
P/FFO19.02434910497322
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI53.7
Support$27.92
Resistance$30.31
MA 20$29.13
MA 50$27.61
MA 200$29.75
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index83.02
Risk Assessment
Beta0.53
Volatility32.08%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.