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NXRT:NYSENexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-06 - not real-time

$29.01

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

NexPoint Residential Trust (NXRT) is trading at $29.01, just above the 20‑day SMA of 29.13 and comfortably above the 50‑day SMA of 27.61, but still below the 200‑day SMA of 29.75, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish longer‑term bias. The RSI sits at 53.7, reinforcing a lack of clear momentum, while the MACD histogram is negative and the signal line is flagged as bearish, suggesting short‑term pressure. Volatility remains elevated at over 32% for the past 30 days, and the stock is hovering near its technical support of 27.92 with resistance around 30.31, limiting immediate upside. The dividend yield is attractive at 7.31% with a payout ratio near 47%, but earnings are negative (trailing EPS –1.26) and the forward PE is deeply negative at -14.36. The balance sheet is highly leveraged, reflected by a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 565 and total debt exceeding $1.5 B, while cash on hand is under $30 M, raising concerns about debt service sustainability. Despite these headwinds, the stock’s beta of 0.53 points to lower market‑wide volatility, and the analyst consensus remains a hold with a modest upside potential of roughly 4.8% toward the median price target of $30.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • High dividend yield but negative earnings
  • Bearish MACD and neutral price action
  • Elevated leverage and limited cash reserves

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Modest upside to target median price
  • Potential for value‑add asset improvements
  • Continued debt‑service pressure

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Unsustainable leverage and negative ROE
  • Risk of dividend cuts if earnings do not improve
  • Exposure to sector‑specific headwinds in residential REITs

Key Metrics & Analysis

REIT Metrics

P/FFO19.02434910497322

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI53.7
Support$27.92
Resistance$30.31
MA 20$29.13
MA 50$27.61
MA 200$29.75
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index83.02

Risk Assessment

Beta0.53
Volatility32.08%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.