NST:ASXNorthern Star Resources Ltd Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time
A$25.96
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Northern Star Resources (NST) is trading at AUD 25.96, comfortably above its 200‑day SMA (23.19) but below the 20‑day (28.84) and 50‑day (27.66) averages, indicating short‑term pressure near a support zone at ~AUD 25.05. Technicals show a bearish MACD (line ‑0.11 vs signal 0.42) and an RSI of 39.5, suggesting the stock is approaching oversold territory while volume is rising. Fundamentally, the company posted 19% revenue growth, a solid 37.8% gross margin and a 30.5% operating margin, with free cash flow of AUD 0.29 bn and a payout ratio under 50%, supporting the 1.93% dividend.
Analyst consensus remains “Buy” with a median target of AUD 33.4, implying roughly 20% upside, and the forward PE of 10.8 underscores a value‑oriented pricing despite a trailing PE of 22.
Analyst consensus remains “Buy” with a median target of AUD 33.4, implying roughly 20% upside, and the forward PE of 10.8 underscores a value‑oriented pricing despite a trailing PE of 22.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near technical support and below short‑term SMAs
- Bearish MACD and modest RSI indicating near‑term downside risk
- Increasing volume and strong cash flow provide a cushion
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Analyst price targets suggest ~20% upside
- Robust earnings growth (19% YoY) and record EBITDA
- Sustainable dividend with a comfortable payout ratio
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Gold sector defensive qualities and low beta exposure
- Solid balance sheet with low debt‑to‑equity and strong ROE
- Consistent dividend and cash generation support long‑term returns
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth19.00%
Profit Margin22.24%
P/E Ratio22.0
ROE12.80%
ROA8.15%
Debt/Equity11.77
P/B Ratio2.4
Op. Cash FlowA$2.7B
Free Cash FlowA$287.8M
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI39.5
SupportA$25.05
ResistanceA$31.96
MA 20A$28.84
MA 50A$27.66
MA 200A$23.19
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index80.66
Valuation
Fair ValueA$5.44
Target PriceA$31.22
Upside/Downside20.26%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.93%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.03
Volatility58.39%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.