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NSC:NYSENorfolk Southern Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time

$302.43

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Norfolk Southern (NSC) is trading at $302.43, comfortably above its 50‑day SMA ($299.94) but still below the 20‑day SMA ($313.53), indicating a short‑term pull‑back within an overall bullish trend (SMA‑200 at $282.85). The stock sits near a strong support level at $295.41 and faces resistance around $319.94, with increasing volume and a 30‑day volatility of ~20%, while the RSI of 41.7 suggests modest downside pressure and the MACD histogram is negative, signaling bearish momentum in the near term. Fundamentally, NSC delivers solid profitability – gross margin of 45.9%, operating margin of 31.2% and profit margin of 23.6% – and EPS is expected to rise from $12.76 to $13.56. Revenue has slipped slightly (-1.7%), but operating cash flow of $4.36 B and free cash flow of $1.45 B support a 42% payout dividend yielding 1.79%. The company’s P/E of 23.7 is well below the industry average of 29.5, though its DCF‑derived fair value ($16.79) flags a stark over‑price discrepancy, leaving only a ~3.9% upside. High leverage (Debt/Equity ≈ 115%) is balanced by strong cash generation, making the dividend appear sustainable.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price approaching resistance near $320
  • Bearish MACD divergence
  • Limited near‑term upside (~4%)

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Strong cash flow covering dividend
  • P/E advantage versus industry peers
  • Bullish trend supported by SMA alignment

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Stable demand for rail freight infrastructure
  • Sustainable dividend with 42% payout ratio
  • Balanced risk from leverage and sector fundamentals

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-1.70%
Profit Margin23.59%
P/E Ratio23.7
ROE19.25%
ROA5.91%
Debt/Equity114.74
P/B Ratio4.4
Op. Cash Flow$4.4B
Free Cash Flow$1.5B
Industry P/E29.5

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI41.7
Support$295.41
Resistance$319.94
MA 20$313.53
MA 50$299.94
MA 200$282.85
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index75.89

Valuation

Fair Value$16.79
Target Price$314.21
Upside/Downside3.90%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.79%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.77
Volatility20.14%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.