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NRP:JSENEPI Rockcastle N.V Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-23 - not real-time

ZAC 14,880.00

Latest Price

4/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

NEPI Rockcastle is trading in a bullish technical environment – the 20‑day SMA (14,722) sits above the 50‑day SMA (14,400) and the price (14,880) is comfortably above the 200‑day SMA (14,311). The MACD histogram is positive (≈10) and the RSI is at 65, indicating momentum but still below overbought levels. Volume is stable and the 30‑day volatility is modest at around 9%, while the beta of 0.17 suggests the stock moves far less than the broader market.
Fundamentally, the company delivers strong profitability with gross margins near 69% and operating margins above 61%, and it is growing revenue at roughly 9% YoY. The trailing PE of 11.3 is far below the industry average of 32.3, pointing to a value tilt, and the dividend yield of 7.35% is attractive, though the payout ratio of 79% means sustainability hinges on continued cash generation. Debt stands at ZAc 3.1 bn with a debt‑to‑equity of 62%, but free cash flow remains healthy at ZAc 233 m, supporting the dividend. The DCF fair value (≈235) and the modest 2.3% upside to the resistance level suggest limited short‑term price appreciation, but the long‑term asset base and dividend profile provide a compelling case for value‑oriented investors.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish technical indicators with limited upside to resistance
  • High dividend yield providing near‑term income
  • Modest price upside reduces short‑term upside potential

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued PE relative to industry peers
  • Strong cash flow supporting dividend sustainability
  • Manageable leverage and solid operating margins

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Robust real‑estate asset portfolio in Central and Eastern Europe
  • Attractive dividend yield for income‑focused investors
  • Long‑term growth potential from asset development and lease‑up cycles

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth9.30%
Profit Margin53.60%
P/E Ratio11.3
ROE10.06%
ROA4.06%
Debt/Equity62.04
P/B Ratio1.1
Op. Cash FlowZAC453.5M
Free Cash FlowZAC232.9M
Industry P/E32.3

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI65.2
SupportZAC 14,251.00
ResistanceZAC 14,987.00
MA 20ZAC 14,722.95
MA 50ZAC 14,399.54
MA 200ZAC 14,310.76
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.71

Valuation

Fair ValueZAC 235.24
Target PriceZAC 15,229.28
Upside/Downside2.35%
GradeFair
TypeValue
Dividend Yield7.35%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.17
Volatility9.24%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.