NEOE3:BMFBOVESPANeoenergia SA Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-17 - not real-time
R$33.12
Latest Price
3/10Risk
Risk Level: Low
Executive Summary
Neoenergia (NEOE3) is trading at R$33.12, comfortably above its 20‑day (R$32.89) and 50‑day (R$32.52) SMAs and well above the 200‑day SMA of R$28.98, indicating a strong bullish bias. The RSI sits at 79.6, suggesting the stock is near overbought territory, while the MACD histogram remains positive and the MACD line just eclipses its signal line, reinforcing short‑term momentum. Price action is hugging a narrow range between a support level of R$32.69 and a resistance of R$33.13, with volume trending upward, which could set the stage for a breakout.
Fundamentally, the company trades at a **PE of 8**, far below the industry average of 23.5, and its **price‑to‑book of 1.10** signals a modest premium to net assets. A dividend yield of **4.41%** with a payout ratio of 35% underscores attractive income, though free cash flow is negative while operating cash flow remains positive, and a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 161% raises leverage concerns. Overall, the blend of strong technical momentum, deep valuation discount, and solid dividend profile positions Neoenergia as a compelling candidate for value‑oriented investors, albeit with caution around debt and cash‑flow dynamics.
Fundamentally, the company trades at a **PE of 8**, far below the industry average of 23.5, and its **price‑to‑book of 1.10** signals a modest premium to net assets. A dividend yield of **4.41%** with a payout ratio of 35% underscores attractive income, though free cash flow is negative while operating cash flow remains positive, and a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 161% raises leverage concerns. Overall, the blend of strong technical momentum, deep valuation discount, and solid dividend profile positions Neoenergia as a compelling candidate for value‑oriented investors, albeit with caution around debt and cash‑flow dynamics.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bullish technical indicators (price above SMAs, MACD bullish)
- Near overbought RSI indicating limited upside in the immediate term
- Strong dividend yield supporting total return
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Significant valuation discount (PE 8 vs industry 23.5)
- Sustainable dividend with low payout ratio
- Strategic focus on renewables and regulated utility stability
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- High leverage (debt‑to‑equity 161%) may constrain future cash flow
- Regulated utility business provides steady revenue and cash flow
- Long‑term dividend consistency and sector defensiveness
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth2.80%
Profit Margin9.56%
P/E Ratio8.0
ROE14.59%
ROA6.11%
Debt/Equity161.32
P/B Ratio1.1
Op. Cash FlowR$1.9B
Free Cash FlowR$-2185499904
Industry P/E23.5
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI79.6
SupportR$32.69
ResistanceR$33.13
MA 20R$32.89
MA 50R$32.52
MA 200R$28.98
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index81.5
Valuation
Target PriceR$34.41
Upside/Downside3.88%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield4.41%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.18
Volatility1.72%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.