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NEOE3:BMFBOVESPANeoenergia SA Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-17 - not real-time

R$33.12

Latest Price

3/10Risk

Risk Level: Low

Executive Summary

Neoenergia (NEOE3) is trading at R$33.12, comfortably above its 20‑day (R$32.89) and 50‑day (R$32.52) SMAs and well above the 200‑day SMA of R$28.98, indicating a strong bullish bias. The RSI sits at 79.6, suggesting the stock is near overbought territory, while the MACD histogram remains positive and the MACD line just eclipses its signal line, reinforcing short‑term momentum. Price action is hugging a narrow range between a support level of R$32.69 and a resistance of R$33.13, with volume trending upward, which could set the stage for a breakout.
Fundamentally, the company trades at a **PE of 8**, far below the industry average of 23.5, and its **price‑to‑book of 1.10** signals a modest premium to net assets. A dividend yield of **4.41%** with a payout ratio of 35% underscores attractive income, though free cash flow is negative while operating cash flow remains positive, and a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 161% raises leverage concerns. Overall, the blend of strong technical momentum, deep valuation discount, and solid dividend profile positions Neoenergia as a compelling candidate for value‑oriented investors, albeit with caution around debt and cash‑flow dynamics.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish technical indicators (price above SMAs, MACD bullish)
  • Near overbought RSI indicating limited upside in the immediate term
  • Strong dividend yield supporting total return

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Significant valuation discount (PE 8 vs industry 23.5)
  • Sustainable dividend with low payout ratio
  • Strategic focus on renewables and regulated utility stability

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • High leverage (debt‑to‑equity 161%) may constrain future cash flow
  • Regulated utility business provides steady revenue and cash flow
  • Long‑term dividend consistency and sector defensiveness

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth2.80%
Profit Margin9.56%
P/E Ratio8.0
ROE14.59%
ROA6.11%
Debt/Equity161.32
P/B Ratio1.1
Op. Cash FlowR$1.9B
Free Cash FlowR$-2185499904
Industry P/E23.5

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI79.6
SupportR$32.69
ResistanceR$33.13
MA 20R$32.89
MA 50R$32.52
MA 200R$28.98
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index81.5

Valuation

Target PriceR$34.41
Upside/Downside3.88%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield4.41%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.18
Volatility1.72%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.