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MUTH:INDEXTSX Percent Above 200-Day Average Yesterday Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-12 - not real-time

₹155.20

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Muthoot Microfin is trading at INR 155.2, well below its 20‑day (174.38), 50‑day (177.96) and 200‑day (164.93) SMAs, indicating a bearish price bias. However, the RSI of 31.9 suggests the stock is approaching oversold territory and the MACD remains bearish, while volume is trending downwards, pointing to limited short‑term buying pressure.
Fundamentally, the company shows a stark contrast: a forward P/E of 6.58 versus an industry average of 16.6 and a price‑to‑book of 0.96 imply significant valuation headroom, yet it reports a –69% profit margin, zero operating cash flow and a staggering debt‑to‑equity ratio of 320, underscoring severe earnings and balance‑sheet stress. The recent earnings call highlighted a 5.4% YoY (4.1% QoQ) AUM expansion, which could fuel future disbursements, but the high 45.9% 30‑day volatility and a max drawdown of ~23% amplify the risk profile. The stock sits above its support at ~149.2 and well below the 210 resistance, with the market sentiment currently in “Extreme Greed” (78.16 on the Fear‑Greed Index).

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Price trading below key SMAs and near support level
  • Oversold RSI indicating potential bounce
  • Decreasing volume and bearish MACD limiting upside

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Forward P/E dramatically below industry average
  • AUM growth signaling expanding loan book
  • Valuation gap (price‑to‑book <1) offering upside potential

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Structural demand for micro‑finance in rural India
  • Potential debt restructuring and path to profitability
  • Long‑run valuation upside if earnings turn positive

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-1.60%
Profit Margin-69.44%
P/E Ratio6.6
Debt/Equity320.22
P/B Ratio1.0
Industry P/E16.6

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI31.9
Support₹149.20
Resistance₹210.00
MA 20₹174.38
MA 50₹177.96
MA 200₹164.93
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.16

Valuation

Target Price₹220.00
Upside/Downside41.75%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.06
Volatility45.95%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.