MUTH:INDEXTSX Percent Above 200-Day Average Yesterday Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-12 - not real-time
₹155.20
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Muthoot Microfin is trading at INR 155.2, well below its 20‑day (174.38), 50‑day (177.96) and 200‑day (164.93) SMAs, indicating a bearish price bias. However, the RSI of 31.9 suggests the stock is approaching oversold territory and the MACD remains bearish, while volume is trending downwards, pointing to limited short‑term buying pressure.
Fundamentally, the company shows a stark contrast: a forward P/E of 6.58 versus an industry average of 16.6 and a price‑to‑book of 0.96 imply significant valuation headroom, yet it reports a –69% profit margin, zero operating cash flow and a staggering debt‑to‑equity ratio of 320, underscoring severe earnings and balance‑sheet stress. The recent earnings call highlighted a 5.4% YoY (4.1% QoQ) AUM expansion, which could fuel future disbursements, but the high 45.9% 30‑day volatility and a max drawdown of ~23% amplify the risk profile. The stock sits above its support at ~149.2 and well below the 210 resistance, with the market sentiment currently in “Extreme Greed” (78.16 on the Fear‑Greed Index).
Fundamentally, the company shows a stark contrast: a forward P/E of 6.58 versus an industry average of 16.6 and a price‑to‑book of 0.96 imply significant valuation headroom, yet it reports a –69% profit margin, zero operating cash flow and a staggering debt‑to‑equity ratio of 320, underscoring severe earnings and balance‑sheet stress. The recent earnings call highlighted a 5.4% YoY (4.1% QoQ) AUM expansion, which could fuel future disbursements, but the high 45.9% 30‑day volatility and a max drawdown of ~23% amplify the risk profile. The stock sits above its support at ~149.2 and well below the 210 resistance, with the market sentiment currently in “Extreme Greed” (78.16 on the Fear‑Greed Index).
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Price trading below key SMAs and near support level
- Oversold RSI indicating potential bounce
- Decreasing volume and bearish MACD limiting upside
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Forward P/E dramatically below industry average
- AUM growth signaling expanding loan book
- Valuation gap (price‑to‑book <1) offering upside potential
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Structural demand for micro‑finance in rural India
- Potential debt restructuring and path to profitability
- Long‑run valuation upside if earnings turn positive
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-1.60%
Profit Margin-69.44%
P/E Ratio6.6
Debt/Equity320.22
P/B Ratio1.0
Industry P/E16.6
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI31.9
Support₹149.20
Resistance₹210.00
MA 20₹174.38
MA 50₹177.96
MA 200₹164.93
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.16
Valuation
Target Price₹220.00
Upside/Downside41.75%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.06
Volatility45.95%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.