MTS:ASXMetcash Limited Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-15 - not real-time
A$2.97
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Metcash Limited (MTS) is trading below its short‑ and medium‑term moving averages, with the MACD line under the signal line and a low RSI indicating oversold conditions. The price is hovering close to a key support level while volatility remains elevated, though the beta is notably low, suggesting limited market‑wide risk.
Fundamentally, the stock appears undervalued relative to its discounted cash‑flow estimate, carries a low price‑to‑earnings multiple and a generous dividend yield supported by solid operating cash flow. Despite flat revenue growth and modest margins, the company’s defensive consumer‑staples positioning, strong cash generation and manageable debt profile underpin a sustainable dividend, even as recent insider‑related price pressure adds a short‑term headwind.
Fundamentally, the stock appears undervalued relative to its discounted cash‑flow estimate, carries a low price‑to‑earnings multiple and a generous dividend yield supported by solid operating cash flow. Despite flat revenue growth and modest margins, the company’s defensive consumer‑staples positioning, strong cash generation and manageable debt profile underpin a sustainable dividend, even as recent insider‑related price pressure adds a short‑term headwind.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bearish technical indicators near support
- Elevated short‑term volatility
- High dividend yield offering downside cushion
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Undervaluation relative to DCF fair value
- Strong operating cash flow and dividend sustainability
- Defensive consumer‑staples sector providing stability
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Stable cash generation and low market beta
- Attractive dividend yield in a defensive industry
- Long‑run upside potential as market re‑rates the business
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth0.10%
Profit Margin1.64%
P/E Ratio11.4
ROE17.50%
ROA3.98%
Debt/Equity112.43
P/B Ratio2.0
Op. Cash FlowA$637.3M
Free Cash FlowA$450.6M
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI25.5
SupportA$2.93
ResistanceA$3.37
MA 20A$3.20
MA 50A$3.27
MA 200A$3.67
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88
Valuation
Fair ValueA$3.96
Target PriceA$3.77
Upside/Downside26.94%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield6.06%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.14
Volatility23.05%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.