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MTS:ASXMetcash Limited Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-15 - not real-time

A$2.97

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Metcash Limited (MTS) is trading below its short‑ and medium‑term moving averages, with the MACD line under the signal line and a low RSI indicating oversold conditions. The price is hovering close to a key support level while volatility remains elevated, though the beta is notably low, suggesting limited market‑wide risk.
Fundamentally, the stock appears undervalued relative to its discounted cash‑flow estimate, carries a low price‑to‑earnings multiple and a generous dividend yield supported by solid operating cash flow. Despite flat revenue growth and modest margins, the company’s defensive consumer‑staples positioning, strong cash generation and manageable debt profile underpin a sustainable dividend, even as recent insider‑related price pressure adds a short‑term headwind.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish technical indicators near support
  • Elevated short‑term volatility
  • High dividend yield offering downside cushion

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Undervaluation relative to DCF fair value
  • Strong operating cash flow and dividend sustainability
  • Defensive consumer‑staples sector providing stability

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Stable cash generation and low market beta
  • Attractive dividend yield in a defensive industry
  • Long‑run upside potential as market re‑rates the business

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth0.10%
Profit Margin1.64%
P/E Ratio11.4
ROE17.50%
ROA3.98%
Debt/Equity112.43
P/B Ratio2.0
Op. Cash FlowA$637.3M
Free Cash FlowA$450.6M

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI25.5
SupportA$2.93
ResistanceA$3.37
MA 20A$3.20
MA 50A$3.27
MA 200A$3.67
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88

Valuation

Fair ValueA$3.96
Target PriceA$3.77
Upside/Downside26.94%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield6.06%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.14
Volatility23.05%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.