MRCY:NASDAQMercury Systems Inc Analysis
Data as of 2026-08-25 - not real-time
$87.74
Latest Price
9/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
Mercury Systems, Inc. is priced at $87.74, and its moving averages give no clean directional read — the structure is neutral. It has lost 12.5% over the past 30 days. Momentum indicators put RSI at 33.5 (approaching oversold) with MACD reading bearish. The recent range runs from support at $86.26 up to resistance at $115.38.
Multiples put this in fair territory: 39.8 times earnings against the sector's 29.6. The average analyst target implies 30.3% above today's level. Revenue is growing at 6.1% on a -3.0% profit margin.
On a 1-10 scale the risk profile lands at 9 — high. With 30-day volatility of 70.9%, a beta of 2.28 and a maximum drawdown of 32.2%, position sizing matters more than entry timing here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 94 on the fear-greed composite.
All three time horizons resolve to hold, carrying 2/10 conviction.
Multiples put this in fair territory: 39.8 times earnings against the sector's 29.6. The average analyst target implies 30.3% above today's level. Revenue is growing at 6.1% on a -3.0% profit margin.
On a 1-10 scale the risk profile lands at 9 — high. With 30-day volatility of 70.9%, a beta of 2.28 and a maximum drawdown of 32.2%, position sizing matters more than entry timing here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 94 on the fear-greed composite.
All three time horizons resolve to hold, carrying 2/10 conviction.
Top Market Events
Record Q4 FY26 Bookings of $660 million grew 93.Aerospace and defense company Mercury Systems NASDAQ:MRCY will be reporting results this Tuesday afternoon.Conestoga Capital Advisors, an asset management company, released its second-quarter 2026 investor letter.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 3/10
Key Factors
- Trading below the 200-day average of 90.07
- MACD momentum is negative
- 30-day price change of -12.5%
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 3/10
Key Factors
- P/E of 39.8 versus sector average of 29.6
- Trading below the 200-day average of 90.07
- Analyst targets imply +30.3% versus the current price
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 2/10
Key Factors
- P/E of 39.8 versus sector average of 29.6
- Negative profit margin of -3.0%
- Analyst targets imply +30.3% versus the current price
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth6.10%
Profit Margin-3.02%
P/E Ratio39.8
ROE-2.00%
ROA0.20%
Debt/Equity33.58
P/B Ratio3.5
Op. Cash Flow$102.4M
Free Cash Flow$107.1M
Industry P/E29.6
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI33.5
Support$86.26
Resistance$115.38
MA 20$102.98
MA 50$106.28
MA 200$90.07
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index93.84
Valuation
Fair Value$24.73
Target Price$114.33
Upside/Downside30.31%
GradeFair
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta2.28
Volatility70.88%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.