MRCY:NASDAQMercury Systems Inc analysis
Data as of Oct 2, 2026 - not real-time
- Latest price
- $84.07
- Risk: high
- 9/10High risk
Summary
Mercury Systems, Inc. is priced at $84.07, and its moving averages give no clean directional read — the structure is neutral. It has lost 17.0% over the past 30 days. Momentum indicators put RSI at 44.8 (neutral) with MACD reading bullish. The recent range runs from support at $78.47 up to resistance at $90.06.
Multiples put this in fair territory: 37.7 times earnings against the sector's 27.4. The average analyst target implies 37.6% above today's level. Revenue is growing at 6.1% on a -3.0% profit margin.
On a 1-10 scale the risk profile lands at 9 — high. With 30-day volatility of 42.2%, a beta of 2.18 and a maximum drawdown of 36.5%, position sizing matters more than entry timing here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 93 on the fear-greed composite.
All three time horizons resolve to hold, carrying 2/10 conviction.
Multiples put this in fair territory: 37.7 times earnings against the sector's 27.4. The average analyst target implies 37.6% above today's level. Revenue is growing at 6.1% on a -3.0% profit margin.
On a 1-10 scale the risk profile lands at 9 — high. With 30-day volatility of 42.2%, a beta of 2.18 and a maximum drawdown of 36.5%, position sizing matters more than entry timing here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 93 on the fear-greed composite.
All three time horizons resolve to hold, carrying 2/10 conviction.
Top market events
- A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Mercury Systems MRCY .
- Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC, an investment advisor, released its “Small Cap Equity Fund” Q2 2026 investor letter.
- On August 3, Mercury Systems, Inc. NASDAQ:MRCY and Palantir Technologies Inc. NASDAQ:PLTR announced a strategic...
Market outlook
Short term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence2/102 out of 10
Key factors
- Trading below the 200-day average of 91.81
- MACD momentum is positive
- 30-day price change of -17.0%
Medium term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence2/102 out of 10
Key factors
- P/E of 37.7 versus sector average of 27.4
- Trading below the 200-day average of 91.81
- Analyst targets imply +37.6% versus the current price
Long term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence2/102 out of 10
Key factors
- P/E of 37.7 versus sector average of 27.4
- Negative profit margin of -3.0%
- Analyst targets imply +37.6% versus the current price
Key metrics
Financial health
Revenue Growth6.10%
Profit Margin-3.02%
P/E Ratio37.7
ROE-2.00%
ROA0.20%
Debt/Equity33.58
P/B Ratio3.3
Op. Cash Flow$102.4M
Free Cash Flow$107.1M
Industry P/E27.4
Technical analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI44.8
Support$78.47
Resistance$90.06
MA 20$83.33
MA 50$93.21
MA 200$91.81
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index92.86
Valuation
Fair Value$22.18
Target Price$115.70
Upside/Downside37.62%
GradeFair
TypeGrowth
Risk assessment
Beta2.18
Volatility42.22%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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stockThis analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.