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MKL:NYSEMarkel Group Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time

$1,982.97

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Markel Group (MKL) trades around $1,983, well below its DCF‑derived fair value of $3,305 and its 12‑month target median of $2,104, implying a material discount. Trailing P/E of 11.7 is comfortably under the industry average of 17.4, while revenue growth of 9.9% YoY and solid margins (gross 50.5%, operating 18.8%) underscore a resilient business model. Recent quarterly results highlighted a 92.9% combined ratio and an earnings beat, reinforcing underwriting strength. Technical signals are mixed: the RSI at 34.9 suggests oversold conditions, but a bearish MACD and price below the 20‑, 50‑ and 200‑day SMAs indicate short‑term downside pressure. The stock’s beta of 0.57 and 30‑day volatility of 15% point to lower systematic risk, yet trading volume remains modest, raising liquidity concerns. Executive appointments of Simon Wilson and Andrew Crowley signal a focused drive to simplify operations and could support future strategic execution.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD and price below key SMAs
  • Oversold RSI indicating potential rebound
  • Modest trading volume limiting short‑term moves

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Undervaluation relative to DCF and industry peers
  • Strong underwriting performance and earnings beat
  • Strategic leadership changes enhancing operational focus

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained revenue growth and healthy profit margins
  • Low beta and defensive insurance exposure
  • Long‑term discount to intrinsic value offering upside

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth9.90%
Profit Margin12.70%
P/E Ratio11.7
ROE11.77%
ROA3.05%
Debt/Equity26.25
P/B Ratio1.3
Op. Cash Flow$2.8B
Free Cash Flow$-628082240
Industry P/E17.4

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI34.9
Support$1,928.00
Resistance$2,118.00
MA 20$2,055.24
MA 50$2,076.36
MA 200$2,003.86
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.32

Valuation

Fair Value$3,305.26
Target Price$2,071.75
Upside/Downside4.48%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta0.57
Volatility15.11%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskHigh

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.