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MET:NYSEMetLife, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-19 - not real-time

$81.08

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

MetLife (MET) is trading at $81.08, well below its DCF-derived fair value of $212.18, implying a material valuation gap. The stock’s forward PE of 7.38 versus a trailing PE of 15.68 signals strong earnings upside expectations, reinforced by a Q1 earnings beat and a 10% rise in net investment income. Revenue growth remains modest at 2.7% but operating margins are stable around 9.9%, and the dividend yield of 2.91% with a payout ratio under 45% supports income‑focused investors. Technicals show the price above the 20‑day and 50‑day SMAs (78.90 and 74.63), yet RSI at 65 and a bearish MACD histogram suggest short‑term overbought pressure. Volatility over the past 30 days sits near 21% with a beta around 1.0, indicating market‑level risk, while the sector’s regulatory environment adds a moderate layer of uncertainty. Overall, the combination of a sizable valuation discount, solid dividend sustainability, and positive earnings momentum makes MET an attractive candidate for medium‑ to long‑term accumulation.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price above short‑term moving averages but RSI indicates overbought conditions
  • Bearish MACD histogram suggests limited upside in the near term
  • Stable trading volume and neutral trend reduce immediate catalyst risk

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Significant valuation gap between market price and DCF fair value
  • Forward PE of 7.38 indicates strong earnings upside
  • Quarterly earnings beat and rising investment income support earnings growth

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑term undervaluation with upside potential exceeding 12% based on analyst targets
  • Sustainable dividend yield of 2.91% and payout ratio under 45%
  • Resilient balance sheet and diversified global operations mitigate sector‑specific shocks

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth2.70%
Profit Margin4.67%
P/E Ratio15.7
ROE13.01%
ROA0.45%
Debt/Equity178.02
P/B Ratio1.9
Op. Cash Flow$15.5B
Free Cash Flow$-17429749760
Industry P/E16.5

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI65.0
Support$75.41
Resistance$81.98
MA 20$78.90
MA 50$74.63
MA 200$77.52
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index89.07

Valuation

Fair Value$212.18
Target Price$91.44
Upside/Downside12.77%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.91%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.04
Volatility20.98%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.