MAZE:NASDAQMaze Therapeutics, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-16 - not real-time
$26.85
Latest Price
8/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
Maze Therapeutics is trading at $26.85, well below its 20‑day ($33.82), 50‑day ($41.70) and 200‑day ($31.32) simple moving averages, and the RSI of 25.7 signals an oversold condition. Technical indicators such as a bearish MACD (-4.82 vs signal -4.57) and a recent decline in volume suggest short‑term weakness, while the current price hovers just above the identified support level of $26.16. Insider activity adds a red flag: the company’s president and another executive sold a combined $736k of shares less than a month before the upcoming earnings release. At the same time, the stock exhibits extreme volatility (136% 30‑day) and a high beta (~0.95), reflecting heightened market sensitivity.
On the upside, the firm announced promising Phase 2 “HORIZON” data for MZE829, its lead APOL1 inhibitor, and analysts (11 in total) have issued a “strong buy” with a median target of $58, implying a potential upside of over 100%. The balance sheet shows $342 M in cash against $23 M of debt, providing a solid runway despite negative EBITDA and cash‑flow burn. While the valuation appears stretched given the lack of revenue and negative earnings, the combination of a high‑growth pipeline, strong cash position, and substantial upside potential supports a longer‑term bullish view, albeit with considerable risk.
On the upside, the firm announced promising Phase 2 “HORIZON” data for MZE829, its lead APOL1 inhibitor, and analysts (11 in total) have issued a “strong buy” with a median target of $58, implying a potential upside of over 100%. The balance sheet shows $342 M in cash against $23 M of debt, providing a solid runway despite negative EBITDA and cash‑flow burn. While the valuation appears stretched given the lack of revenue and negative earnings, the combination of a high‑growth pipeline, strong cash position, and substantial upside potential supports a longer‑term bullish view, albeit with considerable risk.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Insider share sales creating short‑term pressure
- Technical oversold signals but bearish MACD
- Upcoming earnings and Phase 2 data release
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Positive Phase 2 trial readouts for MZE829
- Analyst consensus strong‑buy with high target price
- Robust cash position supporting continued R&D
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Potential market opportunity in kidney and metabolic diseases
- Strategic partnerships and pipeline diversification
- Long‑term upside exceeding 100% despite current losses
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
P/E Ratio-7.7
ROE-47.52%
ROA-28.01%
Debt/Equity6.57
P/B Ratio3.7
Op. Cash Flow$-111940000
Free Cash Flow$-72523872
Industry P/E26.0
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI25.7
Support$26.16
Resistance$51.74
MA 20$33.82
MA 50$41.70
MA 200$31.32
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index88.98
Valuation
Target Price$64.45
Upside/Downside140.05%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta0.95
Volatility136.80%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.