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MAT:NASDAQMattel, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-16 - not real-time

$14.84

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Mattel shares are trading well below the discounted cash‑flow estimate, offering roughly thirty percent upside potential. The short‑term moving average sits beneath the longer‑term average, confirming a bearish technical alignment, while the RSI hovers around the midpoint and the MACD histogram has turned positive, hinting at a possible near‑term bounce. Volume has been on a downtrend, and the beta exceeds one, suggesting higher price swings than the market, compounded by a volatility figure above twenty percent. The stock is perched near a key support level and faces resistance just above the current price, framing a tight trading range.
Fundamentally, the company posted solid revenue growth and maintains healthy gross and operating margins, with cash flow generation that comfortably covers debt service despite a high leverage ratio. Analysts collectively rate the stock as a buy, and management’s recent presentation at a major consumer conference underscored confidence in the brand portfolio, though a pending shareholder litigation adds a layer of regulatory risk.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • bearish technical alignment with moving averages
  • proximity to support level
  • decreasing trading volume

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • significant upside to fair value
  • steady revenue growth and margin expansion
  • positive analyst consensus

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • strong brand portfolio and strategic outlook
  • undervalued relative to intrinsic value
  • robust cash flow supporting long‑term investments

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth7.30%
Profit Margin7.43%
P/E Ratio12.0
ROE17.68%
ROA5.56%
Debt/Equity120.16
P/B Ratio2.0
Op. Cash Flow$593.3M
Free Cash Flow$393.7M

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI43.4
Support$14.10
Resistance$15.72
MA 20$14.64
MA 50$16.31
MA 200$18.40
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index88.98

Valuation

Fair Value$19.45
Target Price$19.14
Upside/Downside29.00%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta1.21
Volatility24.00%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.