MAT:NASDAQMattel, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-14 - not real-time
$14.65
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Mattel (MAT) is trading at $14.65, below its 20‑day ($14.72) and 50‑day ($14.79) simple moving averages, indicating short‑term bearish momentum, while the RSI sits near 48 and the MACD line has just crossed above its signal, offering a modest bullish hint.
Fundamentally, the stock appears cheap on a price‑to‑earnings basis (≈9.4×) and price‑to‑sales (≈0.79×), yet the discounted cash‑flow model values the company at only $10.86, suggesting a potential downside of roughly 25‑30%. The balance sheet is leveraged, with a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 127% and a max drawdown of 36%, but cash flow remains positive (operating cash flow $545M) and ROE is strong at 23.5%. Recent news highlights pressure from a 4% shareholder to explore strategic alternatives, including a possible take‑private, while Mattel Studios is gearing up for a live‑action "Masters of the Universe" release, adding a catalyst for future revenue growth. Analyst consensus is bullish (median target $18, upside ~27%) despite the DCF gap, and the market sentiment index shows "Extreme Greed," which may be inflating the price temporarily.
Fundamentally, the stock appears cheap on a price‑to‑earnings basis (≈9.4×) and price‑to‑sales (≈0.79×), yet the discounted cash‑flow model values the company at only $10.86, suggesting a potential downside of roughly 25‑30%. The balance sheet is leveraged, with a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 127% and a max drawdown of 36%, but cash flow remains positive (operating cash flow $545M) and ROE is strong at 23.5%. Recent news highlights pressure from a 4% shareholder to explore strategic alternatives, including a possible take‑private, while Mattel Studios is gearing up for a live‑action "Masters of the Universe" release, adding a catalyst for future revenue growth. Analyst consensus is bullish (median target $18, upside ~27%) despite the DCF gap, and the market sentiment index shows "Extreme Greed," which may be inflating the price temporarily.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Price below short‑term moving averages indicating bearish pressure
- High leverage and recent incremental spending concerns
- Uncertainty around strategic alternatives and potential M&A activity
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Analyst price targets suggest ~27% upside
- New content pipeline (Mattel Studios) could boost top‑line growth
- Low valuation multiples relative to peers despite DCF gap
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Strong, iconic brand portfolio with enduring consumer appeal
- Potential restructuring or take‑private scenario could improve capital structure
- Long‑term media and licensing opportunities supporting sustainable earnings
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth4.30%
Profit Margin9.27%
P/E Ratio9.4
ROE23.56%
ROA5.39%
Debt/Equity127.02
P/B Ratio2.0
Op. Cash Flow$545.5M
Free Cash Flow$311.7M
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI48.2
Support$13.95
Resistance$15.43
MA 20$14.72
MA 50$14.79
MA 200$17.63
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index89.86
Valuation
Fair Value$10.86
Target Price$18.71
Upside/Downside27.74%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta0.91
Volatility22.34%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.