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MAIN:NYSEMain Street Capital Corporation analysis

Data as of Oct 1, 2026 - not real-time

Latest price
$55.05
Risk: low
3/10Low risk

Summary

Main Street Capital Corporation trades at $55.05, with its moving averages tangled rather than clearly stacked — a neutral trend structure. The last 30 days have lost 4.8%. Relative strength is 40.6 — neutral — and the MACD signal is bearish. Recent trading has carved out support near $54.37 and resistance around $58.75.
The shares look undervalued, trading on 11.2 times earnings below a sector average of 15.1. Analyst price targets sit 9.6% above the current price. Revenue is growing at 3.9% on a 78.5% profit margin. The 5.68% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
Risk scores 3 out of 10, which is low for this asset class. With 30-day volatility of 14.3%, a beta of 0.79 and a maximum drawdown of 23.2%, the drawdown profile is forgiving relative to most of the market. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 92 on the fear-greed composite.
This one splits by horizon — hold in the near term, buy further out, at 4/10 long-term conviction.

Top market events

  • On August 6, Main Street Capital Corporation NYSE:MAIN reported second-quarter results that pushed net asset value to...
  • MAIN's Q2 NII misses estimates as higher expenses offset gains from increased investment income and portfolio activity.
  • Main Street Capital Corporation NYSE: MAIN "Main Street" is pleased to announce that its Board of Directors declared...

Market outlook

Short term

< 1 year

Neutral

Model confidence1/101 out of 10

Key factors

  • Trading below the 200-day average of 56.22
  • MACD momentum is negative
  • Maximum drawdown of 23.2%

Medium term

1–3 years

Neutral

Model confidence3/103 out of 10

Key factors

  • P/E of 11.2 versus sector average of 15.1
  • Trading below the 200-day average of 56.22
  • Analyst targets imply +9.6% versus the current price

Long term

> 3 years

Positive

Model confidence4/104 out of 10

Key factors

  • P/E of 11.2 versus sector average of 15.1
  • Analyst targets imply +9.6% versus the current price
  • Profit margin of 78.5% is healthy

Key metrics

Financial health

Revenue Growth3.90%
Profit Margin78.49%
P/E Ratio11.2
ROE14.92%
ROA5.57%
Debt/Equity80.34
P/B Ratio1.6
Op. Cash Flow$-149808000
Free Cash Flow$248.3M
Industry P/E15.1

Technical analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI40.6
Support$54.37
Resistance$58.75
MA 20$56.21
MA 50$56.73
MA 200$56.22
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index92.25

Valuation

Fair Value$10.62
Target Price$60.33
Upside/Downside9.60%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield5.68%

Risk assessment

Beta0.79
Volatility14.28%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.