MAIN:NYSEMain Street Capital Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-08-19 - not real-time
$58.44
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Main Street Capital Corporation trades at $58.44, with its moving averages tangled rather than clearly stacked — a neutral trend structure. The last 30 days have gained 11.8%. Relative strength is 62.0 — approaching overbought — and the MACD signal is bearish. Recent trading has carved out support near $52.76 and resistance around $59.61.
The shares look undervalued, trading on 11.7 times earnings below a sector average of 16.9. Revenue is growing at 3.9% on a 78.5% profit margin. The 5.50% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
Risk scores 5 out of 10, which is moderate for this asset class. With 30-day volatility of 27.3%, a beta of 0.78 and a maximum drawdown of 26.1%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 94 on the fear-greed composite.
This one splits by horizon — hold in the near term, buy further out, at 6/10 long-term conviction.
The shares look undervalued, trading on 11.7 times earnings below a sector average of 16.9. Revenue is growing at 3.9% on a 78.5% profit margin. The 5.50% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
Risk scores 5 out of 10, which is moderate for this asset class. With 30-day volatility of 27.3%, a beta of 0.78 and a maximum drawdown of 26.1%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 94 on the fear-greed composite.
This one splits by horizon — hold in the near term, buy further out, at 6/10 long-term conviction.
Top Market Events
Main Street Capital's combined dividend payments current exceeds its quarterly distributable net investment income.Announces Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call Schedule HOUSTON, July 16, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Main...Main Street Announces Second Quarter 2026 Private Loan Portfolio Activity PR Newswire HOUSTON, July 9, 2026 HOUSTON,...
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- Trading above the 200-day average of 56.47
- MACD momentum is negative
- 30-day price change of +11.8%
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- P/E of 11.7 versus sector average of 16.9
- Trading above the 200-day average of 56.47
- MACD momentum is negative
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- P/E of 11.7 versus sector average of 16.9
- Profit margin of 78.5% is healthy
- Dividend yield of 5.50%
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth3.90%
Profit Margin78.49%
P/E Ratio11.7
ROE14.92%
ROA5.57%
Debt/Equity80.34
P/B Ratio1.7
Op. Cash Flow$-149808000
Free Cash Flow$248.3M
Industry P/E16.9
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI62.0
Support$52.76
Resistance$59.61
MA 20$56.61
MA 50$53.80
MA 200$56.47
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index94.27
Valuation
Fair Value$13.42
Target Price$59.50
Upside/Downside1.81%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield5.50%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.78
Volatility27.27%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.