LULU:ADXLulu Retail Holdings PLC Analysis
Data as of 2026-07-07 - not real-time
$115.07
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Lululemon’s stock is trading at $115.07, sitting below its 20‑day SMA of $115.24 and well under the 50‑day SMA of $123.59, confirming a bearish price trend despite a modestly bullish MACD histogram and a neutral RSI of 45. High 30‑day volatility (≈48%) and a beta of 1.38 amplify price swings, while volume has been on a downtrend, suggesting waning short‑term buying pressure. These technical signals line up with recent material news of downward earnings revisions and a cut to annual guidance, which have pressured sentiment.
Fundamentally, LULU trades at a low PE of 9.3 and a price‑to‑book of 2.73, delivering a profit margin of 13% and an impressive ROE of 32%, indicating strong profitability. The DCF‑derived fair value of $152.9 implies roughly a 15% upside, and the company maintains solid cash generation with $1.5 B cash versus $2.1 B debt. However, the absence of a dividend and a “hold” consensus from 25 analysts temper enthusiasm, especially amid the “Extreme Greed” market mood.
Fundamentally, LULU trades at a low PE of 9.3 and a price‑to‑book of 2.73, delivering a profit margin of 13% and an impressive ROE of 32%, indicating strong profitability. The DCF‑derived fair value of $152.9 implies roughly a 15% upside, and the company maintains solid cash generation with $1.5 B cash versus $2.1 B debt. However, the absence of a dividend and a “hold” consensus from 25 analysts temper enthusiasm, especially amid the “Extreme Greed” market mood.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Price below 20‑day SMA and decreasing volume
- High short‑term volatility and beta
- Recent earnings guidance cut and negative sentiment
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Undervalued relative to DCF fair value
- Strong margins, ROE and cash flow generation
- Potential recovery in discretionary spending
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Attractive valuation metrics (low PE, solid upside)
- Consistent profitability and brand positioning
- Opportunities for global expansion and product innovation
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth4.30%
Profit Margin13.03%
P/E Ratio9.3
ROE32.03%
ROA16.05%
Debt/Equity44.26
P/B Ratio2.7
Op. Cash Flow$1.9B
Free Cash Flow$1.1B
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI44.9
Support$104.44
Resistance$124.38
MA 20$115.24
MA 50$123.59
MA 200$164.24
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.63
Valuation
Fair Value$152.89
Target Price$132.16
Upside/Downside14.85%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta1.38
Volatility47.50%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.