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LULU:ADXLulu Retail Holdings PLC Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-07 - not real-time

$115.07

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Lululemon’s stock is trading at $115.07, sitting below its 20‑day SMA of $115.24 and well under the 50‑day SMA of $123.59, confirming a bearish price trend despite a modestly bullish MACD histogram and a neutral RSI of 45. High 30‑day volatility (≈48%) and a beta of 1.38 amplify price swings, while volume has been on a downtrend, suggesting waning short‑term buying pressure. These technical signals line up with recent material news of downward earnings revisions and a cut to annual guidance, which have pressured sentiment.
Fundamentally, LULU trades at a low PE of 9.3 and a price‑to‑book of 2.73, delivering a profit margin of 13% and an impressive ROE of 32%, indicating strong profitability. The DCF‑derived fair value of $152.9 implies roughly a 15% upside, and the company maintains solid cash generation with $1.5 B cash versus $2.1 B debt. However, the absence of a dividend and a “hold” consensus from 25 analysts temper enthusiasm, especially amid the “Extreme Greed” market mood.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price below 20‑day SMA and decreasing volume
  • High short‑term volatility and beta
  • Recent earnings guidance cut and negative sentiment

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued relative to DCF fair value
  • Strong margins, ROE and cash flow generation
  • Potential recovery in discretionary spending

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Attractive valuation metrics (low PE, solid upside)
  • Consistent profitability and brand positioning
  • Opportunities for global expansion and product innovation

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth4.30%
Profit Margin13.03%
P/E Ratio9.3
ROE32.03%
ROA16.05%
Debt/Equity44.26
P/B Ratio2.7
Op. Cash Flow$1.9B
Free Cash Flow$1.1B

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI44.9
Support$104.44
Resistance$124.38
MA 20$115.24
MA 50$123.59
MA 200$164.24
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.63

Valuation

Fair Value$152.89
Target Price$132.16
Upside/Downside14.85%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta1.38
Volatility47.50%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.