LUG:TSXLundin Gold Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-11 - not real-time
CA$119.21
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Lundin Gold is trading at CAD 119.21, comfortably above its 20‑day (114.71) and 50‑day (114.60) SMAs and well above the 200‑day SMA (94.44), confirming a bullish price trend. The MACD line (1.57) sits just above its signal (1.53) and the RSI (53.8) is in neutral territory, indicating room for further upside without immediate overbought pressure. Volatility is elevated at 76.5% over 30 days, yet the stock benefits from a very low beta (0.17) and increasing volume, suggesting market moves are driven more by company fundamentals than broader market swings. Fundamentally, revenue growth of 54% and a ROE of 61% underscore strong operational performance, while the DCF‑derived fair value of CAD 149.86 points to a ~25% valuation gap.
The quarterly dividend of US$1.15 (CAD‑equivalent ~3.7% yield) is backed by robust cash flow and a 71.6% payout ratio, making the dividend appear sustainable, and the recent board approval of a normal‑course issuer bid adds further shareholder‑friendly bias.
The quarterly dividend of US$1.15 (CAD‑equivalent ~3.7% yield) is backed by robust cash flow and a 71.6% payout ratio, making the dividend appear sustainable, and the recent board approval of a normal‑course issuer bid adds further shareholder‑friendly bias.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bullish technical setup (price above SMAs, MACD bullish)
- Support level well below current price (101.36)
- Increasing volume confirming momentum
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Significant valuation upside vs DCF fair value
- Strong earnings growth and high ROE
- Sustainable dividend with attractive yield
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Long‑run growth prospects in gold production and exploration
- Robust balance sheet (no debt) and solid free cash flow
- Shareholder‑friendly capital allocation (dividends, issuer bid)
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth54.10%
Profit Margin44.43%
P/E Ratio26.8
ROE61.40%
ROA41.57%
P/B Ratio15.5
Op. Cash FlowCA$1.0B
Free Cash FlowCA$931.9M
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI53.8
SupportCA$101.36
ResistanceCA$130.98
MA 20CA$114.71
MA 50CA$114.60
MA 200CA$94.44
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index76.61
Valuation
Fair ValueCA$149.86
Target PriceCA$113.88
Upside/Downside-4.48%
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield3.69%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.17
Volatility76.54%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.