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LTM:NYSELATAM Airlines Group S.A. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-14 - not real-time

$47.62

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

LATAM Airlines (LTM) is trading at $47.62, well below its 20‑day SMA of $53.93 and 50‑day SMA of $58.33, indicating a potential technical bounce zone. The RSI of 31.9 signals oversold conditions, while a bearish MACD and a neutral trend suggest short‑term pressure but room for a reversal. Valuation metrics are compelling: the stock’s PE of 9.6 is far beneath the industry average of 29.1, and the DCF‑derived fair value of $118 points to roughly 49% upside. Fundamentally, revenue grew 16% YoY to $14.3 B, margins are healthy (operating margin 16.9%, profit margin 10.2%), and free cash flow of $1.53 B supports the 5.06% dividend yield, though the payout ratio of 48% sits atop a high debt‑to‑equity of 605%, raising sustainability concerns.
The airline’s exposure to Latin America, combined with a 30‑day volatility of 50% and a beta around 0.8, adds medium‑level sector and geographic risk, while increasing volume hints at growing investor interest. Given the stark undervaluation, solid earnings growth, and attractive dividend, the stock presents a buying opportunity for investors willing to tolerate the debt‑related and macro‑economic risks.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Oversold RSI suggesting near‑term price support
  • Price trading below short‑term moving averages
  • Increasing trading volume indicating buying interest

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Significant valuation upside versus DCF fair value
  • Strong revenue and earnings growth momentum
  • Attractive dividend yield despite debt considerations

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑term upside potential as airline recovery accelerates
  • Sustained cash‑flow generation supporting dividend
  • Undervalued relative to peers and industry averages

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth16.10%
Profit Margin10.23%
P/E Ratio9.6
ROE142.89%
ROA8.88%
Debt/Equity604.88
P/B Ratio23810.0
Op. Cash Flow$3.7B
Free Cash Flow$1.5B
Industry P/E29.1

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI31.9
Support$45.57
Resistance$60.82
MA 20$53.93
MA 50$58.33
MA 200$48.31
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88

Valuation

Fair Value$117.99
Target Price$71.14
Upside/Downside49.40%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield5.06%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.80
Volatility50.11%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.