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LNC:NYSELincoln National Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-14 - not real-time

$37.30

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Lincoln National (LNC) trades at a rock‑bottom PE of 4.08 versus an industry average of 16.83, and a PB of 0.77, indicating a deep value position. Cash is abundant at $42.7 bn against $6.7 bn of debt, giving a debt‑to‑equity of 65.7% and a low payout ratio of 19.7%, which supports the 4.83% dividend yield. Technically, the 20‑day SMA (35.23) sits below the current price (37.30) and the MACD histogram is positive (0.29) with a bullish signal, while the RSI at 62 suggests room for upside before overbought conditions. The stock faces a bearish trend direction but is poised near the resistance level of $37.48, just above the support of $33.22, and the 30‑day volatility of 30% adds short‑term price swing risk. The DCF model implies a fair value of $523.80, translating to a 14% upside from current levels, and recent analyst coverage notes continued support with a median target of $41.
Overall, the combination of extreme valuation discounts, strong balance sheet, sustainable dividend, and bullish technical cues make LNC an attractive entry for value‑oriented investors, while the high volatility and bearish trend temper expectations for rapid price appreciation.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD histogram and signal
  • Attractive dividend yield of 4.83% with low payout ratio
  • Price near resistance offering near‑term upside to $37.48

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • PE of 4.08 vs industry 16.8 indicating strong value
  • Robust cash position relative to debt
  • Sustainable dividend supported by cash flow

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Diversified insurance and retirement segments providing stable cash flows
  • Long‑term dividend growth potential with low payout ratio
  • Undervalued valuation metrics (PB 0.77, price‑to‑sales 0.38) and upside potential

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth12.50%
Profit Margin9.17%
P/E Ratio4.1
ROE18.77%
ROA0.28%
Debt/Equity65.73
P/B Ratio0.8
Op. Cash Flow$243.0M
Free Cash Flow$2.9B
Industry P/E16.8

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI62.7
Support$33.22
Resistance$37.48
MA 20$35.23
MA 50$35.74
MA 200$39.13
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index89.86

Valuation

Fair Value$523.80
Target Price$42.58
Upside/Downside14.16%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield4.83%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.13
Volatility30.11%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.