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LNC:NYSELincoln National Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-19 - not real-time

$34.69

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Lincoln National appears dramatically undervalued – the discounted cash‑flow estimate suggests a price many multiples higher than the current market level, while the price‑to‑earnings multiple sits far below the industry average. The company also offers an attractive dividend yield that far exceeds typical peers, supported by a low payout ratio and a massive cash pile that dwarfs its debt burden. Revenue is growing at a solid pace and free cash flow is positive, providing a sturdy foundation for continued dividend payments.
On the technical side, the stock is hovering near a key support zone, the 20‑day moving average sits above price, and the MACD line is below its signal, signaling short‑term bearish pressure despite a neutral overall trend. RSI is in the middle range, suggesting no extreme momentum, while beta and recent volatility point to heightened sensitivity to market swings. Recent earnings commentary highlighted a streak of operating‑income growth and the declaration of a preferred‑stock dividend, reinforcing the narrative of steady cash generation.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • price is near a technical support level
  • MACD shows bearish divergence
  • high dividend yield provides downside cushion

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • substantial valuation upside versus DCF estimate
  • ongoing revenue growth and positive free cash flow
  • sustainable dividend supported by strong cash position

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • consistent cash generation and low payout ratio
  • strategic position in life‑insurance and annuity markets
  • long‑term upside from undervaluation and sector stability

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth12.50%
Profit Margin9.17%
P/E Ratio3.8
ROE18.77%
ROA0.28%
Debt/Equity65.73
P/B Ratio0.7
Op. Cash Flow$243.0M
Free Cash Flow$2.9B
Industry P/E16.7

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI42.3
Support$34.06
Resistance$38.48
MA 20$36.28
MA 50$35.35
MA 200$39.54
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.61

Valuation

Fair Value$516.88
Target Price$42.83
Upside/Downside23.47%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield5.19%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.30
Volatility28.49%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.