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LNC:NYSELincoln National Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-15 - not real-time

$35.35

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Lincoln National is trading at a valuation that is markedly below its industry peers, with a price‑earnings multiple that is low relative to the sector and a price‑to‑book ratio well under one, while delivering a dividend yield that ranks among the highest in financial services. Technical indicators point to a bearish short‑term bias – the price sits below the 20‑day moving average, volume is on a downtrend and the market is in a bearish directional phase – yet the MACD histogram has turned positive, hinting at a possible bottoming. Fundamentally, the recent earnings beat and analyst upgrades have injected optimism, and the company’s strong cash position, modest payout ratio and low leverage support dividend sustainability.
Looking ahead, the combination of a sizable upside potential relative to current pricing, a solid dividend profile, and strategic initiatives such as a contemplated reinsurance transaction suggest that the stock is positioned as a value play with upside upside, provided investors can tolerate short‑term volatility.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • bearish technical trend with price below short‑term averages
  • high dividend yield offering immediate income
  • recent earnings beat supporting near‑term confidence

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • valuation gap indicating upside potential
  • sustainable dividend backed by low payout ratio
  • analyst upgrades and potential reinsurance deal improving risk profile

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • stable insurance and retirement business model
  • strong cash base and modest leverage
  • consistent dividend policy reinforcing shareholder returns

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-3.10%
Profit Margin6.44%
P/E Ratio6.1
ROE12.28%
ROA0.16%
Debt/Equity64.67
P/B Ratio0.7
Op. Cash Flow$-167000000
Free Cash Flow$2.8B
Industry P/E17.5

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI50.8
Support$33.21
Resistance$36.84
MA 20$34.82
MA 50$36.26
MA 200$39.35
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index88.64

Valuation

Fair Value$398.92
Target Price$43.50
Upside/Downside23.06%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield5.09%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.30
Volatility32.77%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.