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LISP:SIXChocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG Partizipsch. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-13 - not real-time

CHF 11,220.00

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Lindt & Sprüngli is trading near its 20‑day simple moving average and comfortably above the 50‑day SMA, while the 200‑day SMA sits slightly higher, indicating a price that is holding its ground in the short‑term but lacking strong upward momentum. Technical signals are mixed: the RSI at roughly 38 suggests the stock is approaching oversold territory, yet the MACD histogram remains firmly negative and the MACD line is well below its signal, pointing to bearish momentum.
Fundamentally, the company enjoys robust profitability with a gross margin above 60% and an operating margin around 20%, and it generates healthy cash flow that comfortably covers its 54% dividend payout. However, a trailing P/E near 40 and a price that sits well above the DCF‑derived fair value imply the stock is overvalued at current levels. The modest dividend yield of 1.6% and a solid balance sheet (low debt‑to‑equity) support dividend sustainability, but the lack of analyst coverage and a neutral trend suggest caution. Recent news offers no new catalyst, merely reaffirming Lindt’s status as a classic confectionery holding company.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD with negative histogram
  • RSI nearing oversold but no clear breakout
  • Price close to short‑term support levels

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Strong profit margins and cash generation
  • High valuation relative to earnings and DCF
  • Stable dividend payout with moderate yield

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Defensive consumer sector with global brand strength
  • Sustainable dividend supported by cash flow
  • Potential for price correction toward intrinsic value

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth7.50%
Profit Margin12.22%
P/E Ratio40.5
ROE14.84%
ROA6.71%
Debt/Equity35.61
P/B Ratio0.5
Op. Cash FlowCHF520.4M
Free Cash FlowCHF249.0M

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI38.4
SupportCHF 10,630.00
ResistanceCHF 13,010.00
MA 20CHF 12,183.00
MA 50CHF 11,652.20
MA 200CHF 12,257.10
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88

Valuation

Fair ValueCHF 1,519.60
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield1.62%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.12
Volatility39.39%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.