LIEN:NASDAQChicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-18 - not real-time
$10.24
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Chicago Atlantic BDC (LIEN) trades around $10.24, well below its DCF fair value of roughly $40, indicating a substantial discount. The stock offers a striking dividend yield of over 13% with a payout ratio near 90%, but the sustainability of this payout is questionable given negative operating cash flow and high leverage (debt‑to‑equity ~18). Technicals show a bullish MACD crossover and an RSI at 68, suggesting upward momentum, while volume is increasing and the price sits just below the identified resistance at $10.24.
Investors should weigh the attractive yield and deep undervaluation against elevated volatility (30% 30‑day) and sector‑specific regulatory risks tied to the cannabis‑focused lending business.
Investors should weigh the attractive yield and deep undervaluation against elevated volatility (30% 30‑day) and sector‑specific regulatory risks tied to the cannabis‑focused lending business.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- High dividend yield attracting income‑seeking investors
- Significant discount to DCF fair value
- Bullish MACD and increasing volume supporting near‑term upside
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Continued revenue growth (~40% YoY) in a niche cannabis financing niche
- Potential for portfolio expansion as new debt fundings are deployed
- Low beta indicating limited market‑wide volatility exposure
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Fundamental undervaluation relative to peers
- Opportunity for capital appreciation if regulatory environment stabilizes
- Strong asset‑backed loan portfolio with high senior‑secured exposure
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth40.10%
Profit Margin57.89%
P/E Ratio6.8
ROE11.30%
ROA6.52%
Debt/Equity17.92
P/B Ratio0.8
Op. Cash Flow$-34042844
Free Cash Flow$26.6M
Industry P/E16.9
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI67.8
Support$9.70
Resistance$10.24
MA 20$9.94
MA 50$9.61
MA 200$10.18
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.14
Valuation
Fair Value$39.71
Target Price$11.00
Upside/Downside7.42%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield13.63%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.14
Volatility30.09%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.